I'm not closed off to this discussion. Now that I am clear about what you are claiming, I can discuss it. I previously wasn't in the mood to get into the numbers, but since you are persistent (not a bad thing), I will.
First, I need to ask you - how many PS3s were in US/EU households in 2007, 2008, and currently? How many 360s? How has that ratio changed?
How many PS3s vs. 360s are being sold monthly in the 2 regions? Is one out-pacing the other or are they increasing at the same rate?
The games they are directly comparing are sequels - which in itself is a bit erroneous, but I'll go with it.
I'll go with the soccer games because I can rule out a lot of the US because we don't follow soccer. Pro Evo 08 was released 10/26/2007 (EU). Pro Evo 09 was released 10/17/2008 (EU).
Evo 08 had an EU market of ~1.2mil PS3s vs. ~2mil 360s. Evo 09 had an EU market of ~3.5mil PS3s vs. ~4.5mil 360s.
The rise was very similar: +~2.5 mil PS3s, +~2.5mil 360s. Surely, then, the ratios would stay the same!
Incorrect. If we look at the sales over years as percentages, the 360 had a ~225% increase, while the PS3 had a 292% increase in install base.
The ratios are merely catching up to the combination of the 360's year head start and the PS3s fairly slow start.
I suspect that the trend is not linear as the graphs given suggests - but are more asymptotic. I also believe that there is a max density for the sale of cross-platform games in general.
The data in the article is suggesting that there should be consistent growth over time - but in the video game industry that is actually rarely the case. Sales of sequels are historically unpredictable - some outsell their predecessors dramatically (Call of Duty 4), some decline gradually (Call of Duty: World at War), and some sell in waves (Madden, and many sports games).
This leads to conflicting data - as the total number of consoles is steadily increasing, but the total number of copies sold may not be.
To top it all off, there's really only 1 full year of data we can look at - 2008 data. In 2007, the PS3 was still in it's infancy and had nowhere near the same install base the 360 had, and we're only 4 months into 2009 so we can't make accurate claims for a game's total sales.
Though the 3rd graph listed - 360 vs. PS3 combined software sales - is already suggesting a slowdown in the ratio shift - mainly because sales of the 2 consoles are leveling out. And I think if sales continue to go the way they are, it will slow down even more and level off - asymptotically.
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I'm not closed off to this discussion. Now that I am clear about what you are claiming, I can discuss it. I previously wasn't in the mood to get into the numbers, but since you are persistent (not a bad thing), I will.
First, I need to ask you - how many PS3s were in US/EU households in 2007, 2008, and currently? How many 360s? How has that ratio changed?
How many PS3s vs. 360s are being sold monthly in the 2 regions? Is one out-pacing the other or are they increasing at the same rate?
The games they are directly comparing are sequels - which in itself is a bit erroneous, but I'll go with it.
I'll go with the soccer games because I can rule out a lot of the US because we don't follow soccer. Pro Evo 08 was released 10/26/2007 (EU). Pro Evo 09 was released 10/17/2008 (EU).
Evo 08 had an EU market of ~1.2mil PS3s vs. ~2mil 360s.
Evo 09 had an EU market of ~3.5mil PS3s vs. ~4.5mil 360s.
The rise was very similar: +~2.5 mil PS3s, +~2.5mil 360s. Surely, then, the ratios would stay the same!
Incorrect. If we look at the sales over years as percentages, the 360 had a ~225% increase, while the PS3 had a 292% increase in install base.
The ratios are merely catching up to the combination of the 360's year head start and the PS3s fairly slow start.
I suspect that the trend is not linear as the graphs given suggests - but are more asymptotic. I also believe that there is a max density for the sale of cross-platform games in general.
The data in the article is suggesting that there should be consistent growth over time - but in the video game industry that is actually rarely the case. Sales of sequels are historically unpredictable - some outsell their predecessors dramatically (Call of Duty 4), some decline gradually (Call of Duty: World at War), and some sell in waves (Madden, and many sports games).
This leads to conflicting data - as the total number of consoles is steadily increasing, but the total number of copies sold may not be.
To top it all off, there's really only 1 full year of data we can look at - 2008 data. In 2007, the PS3 was still in it's infancy and had nowhere near the same install base the 360 had, and we're only 4 months into 2009 so we can't make accurate claims for a game's total sales.
Though the 3rd graph listed - 360 vs. PS3 combined software sales - is already suggesting a slowdown in the ratio shift - mainly because sales of the 2 consoles are leveling out. And I think if sales continue to go the way they are, it will slow down even more and level off - asymptotically.