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Nintendo DS (DS)
at 9:02PM PST on March 1, 2011.
I think it's pretty clear that the DS will not sell like the PS2 after the 3DS is launched. The PS2 kept selling because the PS3 cost a ridiculous $600 at launch while the PS2 was $150 at the same time. Right now, the most expensive version of the DS is $180, while the 3DS is set to launch at $250. That, combined with the highly innovative features of the 3DS will almost certainly make people much more likely to buy a 3DS than a DS. From Gameboy to GBA, hardly anything really changed in terms of gameplay. The DS added a bit more with the touchscreen, but was nearly twice the price of the GBA SP. I think there's a real appeal to the fact that the 3DS is thought of as magical by many people, and is one of the first devices ever to have 3D without glasses. I would expect the effect to be much more analogous to the Wii's launch, which was in the similar position of having really interesting, innovative features, and offering full backward capability. The gamecube didn't sell for much after the Wii was released, even in proportion to GC sales which were admittedly lower than DS sales. Additionally, most Nintendo counsels get a price drop a year after launch, which should essentially end any residual DS sales. Even if the DS sold 1 million per month from now until this predicted price drop, that would only be 13 million more, putting it around 160m. This is an overestimate, since the DS probably won't start selling more than it is now once a successor is released. And, even if it sold the most that any handheld has sold after the release of a successor (14+ million as you cite) it wouldn't even get to 165m. And, even if you think 16500 is too low, it certainly shouldn't be at 18000. This is probably the easiest short decision that I've ever seen on this website.
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