I agree with the earlier comments about the huge upward potential of this stock. Don’t look at the review scores or even current sales numbers and look what this product really is. A controller with a 10 dollar/euro game attached to it. Does anyone really expect a lot of people to buy a Wii without at least 1 extra controller? So far I believe the multiplayer fun from Wii Sports to be its biggest selling point, and for that you really need at least 1 extra controller. And when you need one, why not add 10 dollars/euros to the 40 you already spend on the controller, it's really just a small price for an extra game. Sustained attachment rates at 40-50% of the units of hardware sold are a realistic estimation to me (and so far sales numbers show this to be a low estimation, with Media Create stating almost 1.3M units sold in Japan on 2.42M Wiis and NPD saying 249k units sold in the US on 360k Wiis) As long as Nintendo doesn't release similar packages with a controller combined with a game I don't see a reason why this percentage will see a huge drop. Without any releases of such kind been announced at the moment and knowing Nintendo expected themselves to sell 14M Wiis in the current fiscal year, sales of 5-7M units of Wii Play definitely seem possible up until the end of March 2008. Adding the 2.62M they already shipped up until the end of March 2007 gives a total of 7.5-9.5M units sold up until the end of March 2008, with a huge upward potential still left for the years to follow.
The only reasons I see that could prevent these numbers from being reached are: - Wii sales plummeting downwards, which doesn’t seem likely at the moment - Wii Play being discontinued by Nintendo, can’t see a reason why they would do this in the near future. I could possibly see them releasing Wii Play 2 somewhere in the future, but not just yet - Games like Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime changing the focus of Wii more onto single player games, which would decrease the amount of controllers sold, which in turn would decrease the amount of times Wii Play is bought. Judging the current line up this could partly happen, but with enough multiplayer games also getting released (like Mario Party 8 and Mario Strikers Charged) I still expect most people who buy a Wii will at least also be interested into those type of games.
So to me this stock is highly underrated at the moment and currently I have a healthy amount of shares in my possession.
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Does anyone really expect a lot of people to buy a Wii without at least 1 extra controller? So far I believe the multiplayer fun from Wii Sports to be its biggest selling point, and for that you really need at least 1 extra controller. And when you need one, why not add 10 dollars/euros to the 40 you already spend on the controller, it's really just a small price for an extra game.
Sustained attachment rates at 40-50% of the units of hardware sold are a realistic estimation to me (and so far sales numbers show this to be a low estimation, with Media Create stating almost 1.3M units sold in Japan on 2.42M Wiis and NPD saying 249k units sold in the US on 360k Wiis) As long as Nintendo doesn't release similar packages with a controller combined with a game I don't see a reason why this percentage will see a huge drop. Without any releases of such kind been announced at the moment and knowing Nintendo expected themselves to sell 14M Wiis in the current fiscal year, sales of 5-7M units of Wii Play definitely seem possible up until the end of March 2008. Adding the 2.62M they already shipped up until the end of March 2007 gives a total of 7.5-9.5M units sold up until the end of March 2008, with a huge upward potential still left for the years to follow.
The only reasons I see that could prevent these numbers from being reached are:
- Wii sales plummeting downwards, which doesn’t seem likely at the moment
- Wii Play being discontinued by Nintendo, can’t see a reason why they would do this in the near future. I could possibly see them releasing Wii Play 2 somewhere in the future, but not just yet
- Games like Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime changing the focus of Wii more onto single player games, which would decrease the amount of controllers sold, which in turn would decrease the amount of times Wii Play is bought. Judging the current line up this could partly happen, but with enough multiplayer games also getting released (like Mario Party 8 and Mario Strikers Charged) I still expect most people who buy a Wii will at least also be interested into those type of games.
So to me this stock is highly underrated at the moment and currently I have a healthy amount of shares in my possession.