This stock remains an unimaginable steal. I honestly think this game can sell as much as 30 million copies. Wii stock is climbing towards 100 million, and Wii Play's attach ratio remains huge, yet Wii Play is valued at less than half its current sales. (VGChartz has the game at 2.5 million sales LTD between Japan and America alone. It is certainly well over 3 million worldwide.)
There is NO WAY sales just dry up and stop at 6 million. Even if this were a normal game, not a controller with a pack-in game, its sales trajectory now would indicate over 6 million sold by the time Nintendo sells 20 million Wiis. As is, we can expect over 8 million copies by the time Wii sells 20 million. For a prediction of 6 million to make ANY sense, people would have to be betting on Nintendo either altogether discontinuing the game, or turning it into a standalone title, and possibly releasing a different controller pack-in.
Let me explain why that won't happen. Wii Play's development budget is basically $0, because it was mostly a byproduct of Wii hardware development. And production and packaging of the game is only 20 cents or so, because its packaged with a remote. Marketing of the game is $0; no need to advertise extra controllers. So for Nintendo, Wii Play is basically a way to make an additional ~$7 of pure profit (after the retailler takes their share) on controller sales. So Nintendo has no motivation to EVER change the Wii Play business model, or spend the time developing a different pack-in. Not this year, or next year, or 2011. The current set-up turns Wii Play into a profit bonanza.
With that in mind, BUY THIS STOCK. I don't know when it will happen, but this stock is overdue to EXPLODE. Even if you think Wii will only sell 50 million units, its hard to value this game below 12 million, which is 100% profits on your investment. If you think Wii will sell more, there's no reason not to max out your position on this game.
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There is NO WAY sales just dry up and stop at 6 million. Even if this were a normal game, not a controller with a pack-in game, its sales trajectory now would indicate over 6 million sold by the time Nintendo sells 20 million Wiis. As is, we can expect over 8 million copies by the time Wii sells 20 million. For a prediction of 6 million to make ANY sense, people would have to be betting on Nintendo either altogether discontinuing the game, or turning it into a standalone title, and possibly releasing a different controller pack-in.
Let me explain why that won't happen. Wii Play's development budget is basically $0, because it was mostly a byproduct of Wii hardware development. And production and packaging of the game is only 20 cents or so, because its packaged with a remote. Marketing of the game is $0; no need to advertise extra controllers. So for Nintendo, Wii Play is basically a way to make an additional ~$7 of pure profit (after the retailler takes their share) on controller sales. So Nintendo has no motivation to EVER change the Wii Play business model, or spend the time developing a different pack-in. Not this year, or next year, or 2011. The current set-up turns Wii Play into a profit bonanza.
With that in mind, BUY THIS STOCK. I don't know when it will happen, but this stock is overdue to EXPLODE. Even if you think Wii will only sell 50 million units, its hard to value this game below 12 million, which is 100% profits on your investment. If you think Wii will sell more, there's no reason not to max out your position on this game.