Just snooping around the Amazon sales pages to see if any movement against Bioshock on the news of the demo when I noticed that in the top 20 3 Xbox 360's appeared.
At first I thought blimey the core has come out of nowhere then realised one of the models was a premium with the hdmi cable. So Amazon are selling the new 360 premium as a seperate model, makes you wonder who would buy the old model minus the hdmi and the quieter fans and fixed board as they have indentical pricing.
With the pretty much obvious impending price cut/ other deals, I believe that the Xbox 360 will have a sales spike in August, as well as September (Lauch of Halo 3) and that sales will continue strongly into the holiday season. I would reccommend getting ahold of as many August and September 360 futures as you can.
I'm curious when the July period officially ends. If it's not over yet, then this future could probably use further shorting, as all this word of price drops is probably causing people to wait until August. If it's already over, then nevermind; the last few days wouldn't have an effect.
June 5 week NPD was "Microsoft Xbox 360: 198.4K" /5 *4 = 158K
If the numbers stay the same.
May 4 Week NPD was Microsoft Xbox 360: 155K
The question is, will sales continue to increase or will we hit a lull?
Considering Summer is coming to an end, i think the kids who wanted it for summer already got it. My bet is that it will drop to 140K. This is purely speculation and I have nothing to go by.
The XBox 360 has been one of the more stable consoles in the last four months, though worries about the warranty program and the reported 60% sales drop could mean lower sales in coming months. Its past performance is as follows:
If you expect even month-to-month for the 360, then this should be valued at or around 15.84 DKP. However, there are those concerns I mentioned above, which may drop this value.
If you're going off averages, then your weekly is 40.4K, and your target value would be 16.16 DKP. This is slightly skewed thanks to April's performance, but still gives a fair view of the average.
It's not a matter of "picking and choosing", but using common sense over the company sound bites. Why on earth would MS extend the 360 longer than 5 years? They moved to push a new console before anyone else for this gen...and while it hasn't been an aw-inspiring success, it has certainly increased their market share, possibly leading to more than double the system sales of the X-Box. It would make sense for them to do so again, especially because getting a year lead on the next Sony product could be crucial to maintaining their market share.
Development doesn't lead to longer lifespans...it leads to higher software and accessory prices. The higher development costs of the last few generations (over their predecessors) didn't lead to longer lifespans, so why should that change now? MS is planning for the 360 to be profitable next year and if their downloadable media content is a success (let's face it, they easily have the best online service), they could use that money as a cushion to further push their vision of multimedia connectivity...for the next console.
It's hardly the "king" of America...considering it had a year head start. The Wii is kicking its butt monthly and there are signs that the PS3 might even start outselling it.
People should stop looking at China asa source of future growth. The piracy issues there will prevent it from becoming a major player in sales until their government gets serious about copyright protection. Markets such as Korea, Australia and Eastern Europe will be the ones that show the most growth this generation.
But don't button your lip...this site would be boring if every dissenting opinion did so! :)
You can pick and choose what you want to believe but that is what they have said. On the otherhand nobody has said that the 360 has only a 5 year cycle.
The development and manufacture of the PS3 and Xbox 360 almost certainly mean longer lifespans to recoup the costs. It is unlikely that Sony will cut its lifespan significantly shorter than 10 years if it hopes to recover the costs. It is also unlikely that Microsoft would do so. What is likely and may be the only spanner is that the Nintendo produces a true next gen model.
As for the growth of the 360 it obviously is king in the Americas and is doing ok in Europe only lagging behind in Japan significantly. Neither the PS3 or 360 is dominating in Europe. Certainly some countries appear to favour one console over another but certainly no clear winner.
The interesting markets will be the likes of China which may find significant sales over the next 5 years of which we have not precedent for the console of choice in this region as this would be a new arena. I would expect significant sales for both consoles at some point.
I await a price cut because although you believe this is calculated in the numbers it will be this coupled with the games library that will ultimately decide on the quantities shifted by Microsoft and indeed Sony. After all if the PS2 shifted 120 million units without any historical trend then I am sure the PS3 and 360 can make some history to.
I think I will button my lip as I seem to be a lone voice obviously only time will tell.
3
At first I thought blimey the core has come out of nowhere then realised one of the models was a premium with the hdmi cable. So Amazon are selling the new 360 premium as a seperate model, makes you wonder who would buy the old model minus the hdmi and the quieter fans and fixed board as they have indentical pricing.