I'm glad I'm not the only one to see through Sony's hyperbole about the PS3s lifecycle. We all know the PS4 will be here in another 4 years max, so I don't know why people would act as if the PS3 will be their main console beyond that point. Especially when you consider how bad the sales have been...a company isn't going to want to hold onto a console with a lagging market share, they'll want to start fresh and try again (like MS and Nintendo have done this gen).
No way the 360 will sell anything close to 60 million. Even with a year headstart with a console that looked AMAZING compared to the previous gen, their sales were low. That certainly isn't going to be reversed this holiday season and people are kidding themselves if they think that Halo 3 will do it.
@welshbloke, the Xbox 360 may in fact last longer than 5 years. However, we all know that Sony speaks in hyperbole.
"The 360 looks like it will [sell well] this time"
This is looking increasingly doubtful. As Arbiter pointed out, Microsoft has announced they are having trouble meeting their 12 million unit target, which was cut down from a previous 16 million unit expectation. The Xbox 360 is not selling as well as Microsoft had expected.
You do not address the main point of Arbiter's argument--market size. How do you expect the Xbox 360 to sell 60 million units? North America is buying it, but Europe is lukewarm and prefers the PS3. There is no demand for the Xbox 360 in Japan and the rest of Asia.
Why does the 360 only have 3 years left. Tell me who at Microsoft has announced they have a 5 year product. The answer nobody. The competition on the otherhand has announced a 10 year life cycle. So why should the 360 cave in in 3? why would it not continue to sell whilst the PS3 lives on.
You do not make products for the hell of it. Microsoft needed to revise the Xbox because the original did not sell well. The 360 looks like it will this time so it does not make financial sense to bring out another console sell at a lose upset your base just because somebody said that it what we normally do.
The old rules do not apply, this system will look no older than the PS3 in 3 years time.
@welshbloke, I'm not sure I see any theory in the argument as it seems to all be based on real world factors such as market size and current sales...unless your comment was intended as satire?
Why does Arbiter say only 3 years left? Because the Xbox 360 is expected to have a 5 year life cycle. 5-2 = 3. Do you expect more? In 3 years, I expect the Xbox 360 to be in its lame duck position due to anticipation of the next console generation. This means the peak will probably happen in 1.5-2 years.
The main argument is geographic demand. Look at the numbers. There is no demand for the Xbox 360 in Japan or the rest of Asia. Without that market, it is impossible to even sell 60 million units. There just aren't enough gamers!
It should be obvious that the PS3 will outsell the XBox 360, fanboyism aside. Why? If the Xbox 360 and PS3 sell the same number in North America, the PS3 will still far outsell the Xbox 360 in Asia and Europe. With that market disparity, the PS3 stock price should be at least 150% higher than the Xbox 360 stock price. I am thinking PS3 stock is already high, so the logical play is Xbox 360 is way too high.
You argument is based entirely on theory. Why should the 360 only have 3 years left. I find this argument to be extremely weak.
Not only do we have to put aside all logic and dismiss the systems from being on the shelf in 3 years time we also have to believe that it will actually sell less as its library grows and its price diminishes.
The PS3 seems to continue to drive an almost zealot like belief that it will..., one day sweep all competition aside. Yet this still has not happened.
It is obvious that a couple of well heeled fanboys are determined to drive the shares down. I think you will be shorting your money at a loss but its your money.
Why is it so hard to believe this system is still selling and with a price drop and continued improvements will continue to sell.
The Console is changing and I think some of you have not realised this and seem to measure by the old rules. Sorry guys that rule book got lobbed out the window.
@pilias_simber, yeah it looks like people are buying on the price drop rumor. For those of you who are, this doesn't make any sense. Price drops are priced into the stock price. Even a 4000 DKP stock price is looking at something where the 360 ends up being <$150.
There's very little chance the Xbox 360 will be able to sell even 40-50 million units worldwide. It's almost 2 years after launch and they couldn't even meet their cut down target of 12 million units.
There's at most 3 more years to this console, the last of those 3 years will be in decline. There is no demand for the 360 outside North America and there likely never will be. Thinking this should be trading at the same level as the PS3 over lifetime is absurd. Right now Xbox 360 stock is priced higher than PS3!
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Laoldar, Been saying this for a long time, Xbox360's growth is anemic at best when compared to their previous lifecycle.
This is inexcusable (yet historically true) for consoles launched in its position.