I'm wondering how you estimate the lifetime sales of a console. I tried guesstimate thinking that say multiplying with 8 first year sales: thinking that with the losses they're having now they can't afford to pull it off the market in less than 5 years, but with the lower price over time sales should steadily increase. However I'm wondering if this increase is somewhat linear over the years or does it do doubling? I know that year 3-4 of a console's lifecycle should have it's mature big titles released which would tempt me to think that's when most sales happen... but then again as it grows older it's cheaper and with a bigger library. I've read many places people thinking that they'll come out with ps4 soone than expected (it is tempting to think seeing how the actual rendering/graphics card performance is less than teh stellar people expected)but i think they won't do it both because it doesnt make financiar sense to pull it out before they profit from it (then again MS did it with xbox...) but also because with a generation of internate based stuff a solid platform will be important. I think MMOs like the ncsoft deals might turn out to be *very* important. Even if they did release ps4 sooner than expected I think they'd keep the ps3 as a solid standard machine like they're now doing with the ps2: a good bet in evolving countries, which though not big buyers now could turn into a huge market if caught.
The future took a big rise after Sony made the 40GB official and fall directly back to where it was after the September NPD numbers came in. And I say you it will fall again after the October Numbers are in. People underestimating Christmas for the PS3, I agree with you, but don't expect the December future to rise until VGC has much higher numbers or the November NPD numbers are in. Both November+December are undervalued for the PS3 (I think) but a lot of "high profilers" here think otherwise.
(december future)dont people relise that christmas is going to be a huge hit.with the price cut wouldnt this be 1miilion? i know this sounds a little over exagerated but look, all the PS3 needs is the strong weeks in december to reach its current price.Only 5million people have bought one were is the rest, and with the price cut I think this december future is underpriced.
Another point to consider is that not even VGChartz considers their European Data to be that accurate. Why else would they not include the data in their Hardware Comparison Charts?
You confuse weekly/monthly with overall. How many 360 are reported in US + CA by NPD? I don't know exactly (I could calculate the US number) and compare it. Maybe we don't understand each other. I mean overall numbers. Those on the front page That are >5 Millions.
Somehow I doubt that VGChartz magically managed to get 1% within the actual number. They are consistently farther off than that with Japan and US sales, but whatever, I'm not going to debate you with this because like I said I didn't have a chance to see what it was before.
I can tell you that every other time I've checked before the correction they've been between 50-150% off in their predictions, their European sales data is completely useless for even a ballpark figure because they are so far off.
Define "much"? I know about the data correction of the 360 that happened because I had some number in my tables, that wasn't much, 50k. Thats an error of 1%, o yeah thats far off.
It was their PS3 data after the European launch. They had it up close to 900k (890 IIRC) until it was confirmed that Europe did 600k for launch a couple weeks after launch. VGChartz then revised their numbers down with no comment, which is what they always do.
Another example was the recently released 360 sales data, which was magically adjusted after it was released. I didn't get a chance to see how far off it was, but I do remember it was much lower than it was after the data was released.
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