Am I missing something? Wii is going higher and higher for March, and I am not seeing any data that shows the console pushing more units out this month then previous months. I dont see the Wii being able to get more then 100k units out per week for the 5 weeks of the months. I know this is a game, and I am banking on people over predicting the system. But at the same time, isnt the point of this game to try and accurately predict the market?
Expected 420k it was 274k. Yes we overshooted also, but I was pretty close (expected 320k). Pachter was right in December, because he copied the November numbers right. His prediction are most of the time just a copy of the previous month with a general trend, or in November (that was hot) it was just 4 time of that what the company's stated where sold on Black Friday. I hope he does a better job at the finance part, because for me, he fails miserably at the game sales part of his job.
Sorry we have a lot of people here I personal think are better than Pachter, at least their opinion is more of value to me: Zukaus, pilias, Joe80, Laoldar, feelmyring welshbloke. Just to name a view. No I don't agree with them all of the time (or even often) but all of them have most of the time a point of view with reasoning (even if I don't agree). All of their opinions have a higher value to me than Pachters. He is overrated if you ask me, big time.
You know what he predicted for Jan on the Wii. One month makes not a summer.
It it would be a software title with no info than VGC I also would not dump more money in. But I personal think I have a case, argued by shipment numbers, backup by VGC and the one retail source in the US I am having, so I am confident enough in my prediction. I make always a win lose calculation. Even if I am wrong, 400 thousand should be the total minimum. So near no loss, possible win of 20%. The gab is usually bigger, but its a hardware future. Its does not have that high risk like software futures. For example, I am pretty confident that VGC can not be that far of on Wipeout Pulse. It will be 15-20 thousand I think. But I won't short it at the current price, because I could easily be wrong :)
I predicted 440K Wii for Feb 08. However, since I don't have any spare money (can you loan me some money ? I am willing to pay 2 - 3% interest rate for 3 days loan, until NPD Feb 08 cash out) I have to stay away from that opportunity (when the price hit 36 DKP).
Since I have mispredicted lots of things in the past, I tend to stay away from 10% - 15% profit margin. I wish I can be more accurate like you.
I used to have low opinion on Patcher, but it has been improved a lot since Dec 07 prediction, in which he came very, very close on lots of things.
Now I only have "slightly below average" opinion on him :).
I predicted 450+. I predicted 1.2 Million for feb+march. Considering March is 5 weeks and brawl month, I would argue that it will fall 500 thousand 700 thousand at the moment. I said I wouldn't be surprised by that many Wii's not that it will sure end up there. As said my current prediction is around 500 thousand for Feb. Thats a ROI of 20% at the moment. Fine enough for some last call bids for me :)
Not worried yet that Wii shipment in February might not hit 600K, as you predicted ? I can see them reaching 600K or even more on march, but for Feb it is a risky (IMO) investment. Remember Pachter predicted only 300K+ for Wii on Feb 08 (I know that he usually miss the prediction by significant percentage, but he came quite close on Dec 07).
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Oh and people will most likely try ;)