I agree with you. In fact, I already have a maximum short position on this one, even though I usually prefer to focus on short tem (Dec) instead of long tem (Jan) opportunity.
My own estimate is for Jan 08, between 58.8 DKP (max) and 43.6 DKP (min). I think it will fall more closely to 43.6 DKP, which is still slightly lower than 45.1 DKP achieved by PS2 on Jan 2003. The reason I predict lower for Wii is because of the Raincheck program, which mean higher sales for December (and lower for January), instead of lower for December (and higher for January).
I am also long on Dec 2007 Wii, since I think the current price is low. I believe Wii will hit 200DKP - 220 DKP on December. I noticed that you are not long on that one. Any reason why ?
I'm just saying those that are expecting the Wii to be high because of the Raincheck program might want to reconsider. Add in the bad retail calendar and it's a worse January than normal because of losing the first week of January to December.
That being said, the large shipments of Wii's might be encouraging to some. We all know that whatever hits stores will sell. Nintendo already admitted that they diverted shipments to the US for Black Friday, and it looks as if they did it again in December.
The question is, is production (or more diverting of shipments) going to allow 600k+ Wii's to hit the US? I tend to believe Nintendo put as many units as possible into the holiday season and that January shipments might be more even between Europe and Japan.
So, long story short, I think the number is too high as it's by FAR the largest ever HW number for January on top of constrained shipments.
I don't understand your sentence "for those who were expecting a good 150-200k Wii's to hit in January, you might want to rethink...". Are you saying that the current 620K figure for Wii January too high ? If yes, on what level you think it should be, and by what reason ? (other than raincheck program fulfillment by gamestop)
@Just_Ben, Well I think it is really idiotic for Rockstar and/or Take Two to look at the Wii and say that they will not try putting out games that appeal to the crowd that is not just into casual gaming. The quality of their titles that they have put out on the Wii thus far has been low all around, so no wonder sales are on the low side. And with Manhunt 2, that title did not even perform well on the PS2. And Bully is just another port of an old game. If anything, Rockstar and Take Two just have themselves to blame for their low sales of their titles on the Wii.
Did some retail checks and Gamestop corporate has already recieved (and mostly sold) the Wii rainchecks and then some. All should be booked to December.
So, for those who were expecting a good 150-200k Wii's to hit in January, you might want to rethink...
And damn are those $19.99 games selling like the wind. Unbelievable.
They talked to Rockstar about support and GTA, but it seems Rockstar/Take Two have other plans. But maybe these talks does bring Bully at first. I can't believe they will put more such games on the Wii if Bully fails like others, while carnival games and such succeed.
Games like Bioshock and Half Life 2 wouldn't have gone to a Nintendo platform normally in the past, so I can't imagine them caring. They didn't make any moves to cater to games like GTA, so why would they care about games that sell a fraction of that amount?
Also, just because WE think Nintendo should aim for 100 million, doesn't mean that they do. Their goals for the Wii were quite modest initially, so I doubt they'll want to change things because they're currently wiping the floor with their competition.
@vGInfidel, I agree that the credit crunch will have a negative affect on consoles sales, but I believe that there will still be an increase in the total number of home consoles sold globally.
Off-topic: By the way, my member name on here is Lstormy10, not istormy10 - don't worry about making the mistake. I have had the alias for online functions for years and have just kept it - though I usually forget to put in a capital L when I sign up for a website (leading to the l and i confusion).
@Laoldar, This time imho it's different because now they're not directly competing with similar hardware. They're in their first year and some of the big game of the year nominations just can't run on their console... I expect this to accentuate over time. The cheaper the system gets the less inclined people might turn out to be to buy non-bundled software for it... I'm guessing a system reeaaally needs a lot of 3rd party success to do 100+ mil and that may turn out to be hard with games not able to shock through "new&fresh technology" factors. People have already seen a lot of how far things can be pushed with this level of technology, and putting all the pressure on the controls for newness might be imho too much to ask of them.
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I agree with you. In fact, I already have a maximum short position on this one, even though I usually prefer to focus on short tem (Dec) instead of long tem (Jan) opportunity.
My own estimate is for Jan 08, between 58.8 DKP (max) and 43.6 DKP (min). I think it will fall more closely to 43.6 DKP, which is still slightly lower than 45.1 DKP achieved by PS2 on Jan 2003. The reason I predict lower for Wii is because of the Raincheck program, which mean higher sales for December (and lower for January), instead of lower for December (and higher for January).
I am also long on Dec 2007 Wii, since I think the current price is low. I believe Wii will hit 200DKP - 220 DKP on December. I noticed that you are not long on that one. Any reason why ?