Your thinking that there is no increased market penetration, you only have to compared GBA generation vs DS+PSP generation. In Japan, it has been proven that there is an increase. In Europe, it has been proven that there is an increase. Only in US it has not been proven, but the trend is showing possibilities (witness 1.5 Million DS in Nov 07, which is the highest record ever for console or portable in November month).
If 160 Million is the total # for console this generation, and there is no increased penetration (I don't believe it, but let's play along using your assumption), then something got to give. Instead of thinking that "Wii got to give", why not "X360 got to give" or "PS3 got to give" ?
Personally, I think it is more likely that it is "PS3 got to give" instead of "X360 got to give". Maybe it will come to this ? 90 Million Wii (less than PS2) 40 Million X360 (more than XBOX) 30 Million PS3 (more than GameCube)
if im right in thinking last gen sales totalled roughly 160mil, thats worldwide. if that were to be for america only then every household would have to have at least one console on average, something which did not happen. imo its not unreasonable to think that total sales will not pass this mark by much globally this time round given the factors i stated below. you cannot use the arguement that the population is growing etc. because in japan it is actually falling quite rapidly and population growth is minimal at best in practically every first world country where the majority of consoles are sold. yes new customers are being reached but i think this will be offset by high prices, credit crunch etc. the first thing to go when the going gets tight is disposable income especially expensive electronic toys(which is what the wii is to most people).and again it is true that consoles are becoming more available in other countries although i think it will be another generation or two before it has an effect, and no you cannot use china as an example as they are primarily pc gamers for now at least.
@feelmyring, Then you must account for the difference for handheld consoles versus home consoles. It is less likely for someone to own multiple handheld consoles than it is for someone to own multiple home consoles - therefore the Wii would have an advantage in becoming the second console for a number 360 and PS3 owners unlike the DS which is bought a lot less often as a second console for PSP owners.
@vGInfidel, You once again forgot the global picture when it comes to the number of consoles that are able to be sold this generation. Also, some new customers are being reached and the population with access to game consoles is growing (as the population is always growing).
I personally not investing anymore in this stock for now, but that is more because I had alreadly picked up a good chunk of it quite awhile back.
IMO, your 35 Million by christmas 2008 criteria is too soon. PSP, who was released on March 2005, haven't even reach 35 Million worldwide by now (only 26 Million by end of Nov 07).
PSP might not be a good benchmark, you might say. In that case, let's take NDS, which I am sure everyone agree will crack 100 Million WW.
Released on US on Nov 04, by Christmas 2006 (2 years after launch), it managed to sell only 9 million in US, 14 Million in Japan (no idea about Europe figure). For DS to reach your 35 Million in 2 years, it need to sell 12 Million in Europe, which I believe was not achieved (since Europe was roughly the same or lower than US, much lower than Japan).
If you say 25-30 Million in 2 years, I think it is a more realistic (and achievable) goal. Even PS2 only achieved 15.7 Million (US) + 7 Million (Japan, up to March 2002) = 22.7 Million (no idea about Europe figure) in its first 2 years since launch.
yea your right, in my house my mum and two sisters each have a DS, when they buy a wii theyll only be getting one. same with a friend they have 3 DS's and only one wii.
@lstormy10, The major difference between DS and Wii is that in a family of 4 kids, there might be 4 DS's, but there'd be only 1 Wii. While I don't think the Wii will sell 1/4th of the DS, I don't think that it will even approach the success the DS will have, over it's lifetime.
ah yes i was being incredibly stupid there, taking into account other territories then it would seem that it has sold approx 15mil in its first 13 months so its not far off the target but i still dont believe that it will last for long enough, either consumer interest will drop or there will be a new system, i think its a big risk for little reward. even if its sales continue on the right path i cannot see this surpassing 105million by far and therefore its incredibly slow equity for possibly no reward unless the price rises on speculation. if you take into account current SE ps3 and 360 price then your looking at well over 200million consoles. considering the rising prices of this generation and the current state of the american economy, the effects arent being seen yet but they will within a couple of years, i cannot see it surpassing last generations total by far and therefore something (possibly the ps3 or 360 depending on how things turn out aswel) will lose out if not all.
personally investing in a long on this stock stinks to me, high risk with seemingly little reward, a short probably isnt worth it either as i dont think it will fall short of the target by much, maybe 20-30%, and it will take a long time for the price to drop.
@feelmyring, You have to look at what the DS has done though. It really has not had hype/fad for the past year or so and its sales have not begun to die down. The thing is that if somewhere around 160 million (rough estimate, actually probably a little bit low) home consoles were sold last generation, then it is to be expected that somewhere around at least 150 million home consoles will be sold this generation. You also to have look at the fact that the Wii is catching new audiences that would allow it to have higher sales - it is not just catching those that are gamers (like the 360 and PS3). On top of that, many people will probably have the Wii as a second console along with their 360 or PS3. I believe that the Wii will continue to sell well for quite sometime and continue on selling a good amount of system for at least into 2010. Plus Nintendo has a number of resources they can use to boost sales of the Wii when needed - a price cut, new colors, a bit extra capability (the possibility of a DVD-capable Wii in Japan), bundles, etc.
@vGInfidel, Like Heloise10 said, 500k per month is only for the U.S. Production levels are now at around 1.8 million per month globally. Significantly higher than your number of 1.25 million per month that you stated for needed per month sales.
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Your thinking that there is no increased market penetration, you only have to compared GBA generation vs DS+PSP generation. In Japan, it has been proven that there is an increase. In Europe, it has been proven that there is an increase. Only in US it has not been proven, but the trend is showing possibilities (witness 1.5 Million DS in Nov 07, which is the highest record ever for console or portable in November month).
If 160 Million is the total # for console this generation, and there is no increased penetration (I don't believe it, but let's play along using your assumption), then something got to give. Instead of thinking that "Wii got to give", why not "X360 got to give" or "PS3 got to give" ?
Personally, I think it is more likely that it is "PS3 got to give" instead of "X360 got to give". Maybe it will come to this ?
90 Million Wii (less than PS2)
40 Million X360 (more than XBOX)
30 Million PS3 (more than GameCube)