To bad it will blow the current expectation out of the water :o) No slow down, it is the next DS, it only will pick up steam :o) So far its selling much faster than the PS2 and the future isn't looking bad :o)
I believe it could be more profit taking (selling stock you have bought when you think the price has reached a plateau) instead of shortselling (selling stock you don't own because you think the price is too high and hoping that later on you can buy them again at lower price). Especially if the price goes down in a big way. Shortselling is usually only useful for future (monthly prediction) instead of long (LTD prediction), especially for those newbie like me (only have less than 2.5 Million DKP worth).
If you really suspect it is shortselling, try to check the Rank 1 - Rank 50, since they have so many money, and can influence market in a way no newbie could.
OMG... yeah, sure, I have been shorting the Wii thinking there's no way it's going to sell so hotly for enough years to do 110mil... but even though i had noticed public opinion slowly shifting and stocks going down, I expected it to be much slower (a year+) so I didn't put a lot of dkp into it... and then today's change. WOW. so very curious who's shorting the Wii this strongly or is interest just going away? I'm guessing tomorrow it'll go back up? It's unsettling :P
Hi Joshua, how are you ? It is very good time for you to stock up on the Wii stock, since the price is low (in your opinion).
I think a lot of people just sell their DS / Wii stock (profit taking), and divert those funds to other more promising stock, such as "PGR4" (16% increase today), "Mario Party DS" (13% increase today).
So what the heck just happened to Wii and DS long stocks? Unless Nintendo just pulled a Sega and announced cessation of hardware production (which they don't seem to have) a value drop of thousands seems out of the blue. Did a group of people just dump a bunch for no reason?
@rpshissl, I think people are banking on a number of things: 1) December is a 5 week NPD period 2) There was a statement that 600k extra Wiis would be made available to the US for last weekend's "push" 3) November sold almost 1 million consoles, and December should be higher. 4) That Nintendo had more of a stockpile than they let on, to release in December.
@rpshissl, There may be the assumption that stock was held back over the year in preparation for the high holiday demand. It's not an uncommon practice in many industries, especially consumer electronics. They haven't been selling 1.8 million every month so far, so if that's been their average monthly production for 2007, they've got quite a backlog ready for this season. Plus, anecdotal evidence from retail employees and shoppers lead me to believe the Christmas Wii rush included the highest stock counts ever. I don't think 1.6 million NA is out of line at all. It might even be low.
I don't understand why December's prediction is so high. 1.66 million for NA? The numbers I've found show that Nintendo claims that it is only producing 1.8 million worldwide. This would mean that people think this number is incorrect or that NA gets all but 140K Wiis. Kotaku Toronto Star
Has anyone taken into account, for the Wii January future the possibility that Nintendo will not be able to supply retailers with adequately with new units after the holiday rush, leading to a much smaller supply (much like what happened for the DS a year or so back in January, in which Nintendo took awhile to restock retailers and the PSP overtook the DS that month due to low supply). Due to this I think that the current future price is overvalued.
2
To bad it will blow the current expectation out of the water :o) No slow down, it is the next DS, it only will pick up steam :o) So far its selling much faster than the PS2 and the future isn't looking bad :o)