I was shorting at 2.7m, didn't push the price down yesterday.
I'm basing my short on the Reggie's comments that they shipped "roughly" 50% more this year and I believe that to be heavily front loaded into November for the Black Sunday weekend (where clearly they sold what they shipped).
So my calculation is 1.5 * (Nov 2007 + Dec 2008) - 2m.
A complete punt to be honest but I'll either lose nothing or get a big win. If they hit 3m for December then it'll be worth the net loss to see the meltdown :D
Very interesting movement of the Dec 08 Futures today and yesterday. Very big downward movement. Is there something (other than rumour/private info) that I didn't know happened yesterday ?
VGC so far put Wii 3 weeks sales for NPD Dec as 2,345,699, for 3 weeks (week ending Dec 6 till week ending Dec 20). The downward movement pushed the price to 2.01 Million for 5 weeks. Very interesting.
To deftangel, any comment ? You are the highest networth player that shorted them.
Note : Long player from Top 25 Networth : Gaara42, Mushashi, vGInfidel, ErikAston, starship.
I was looking at the chart for this stock. It is following a very nice pattern. Sales should be strong. Would be wrong to project to linger around 1600? Wii would need some major sales boost or HYPE to settle around 1700!
The Wii GLS stock chart has been adjusted for November 25 to filter out extreme price moves as a result of large portfolio rebalancings so that the chart is readable.
There was some discussion in the General thread. Like : this onethis one and another and yet another. There are lots more than the one I mentioned, so feel free to go to the threads, and read them :D.
Alphaposted on Wii (Wii) at 1:41PM PST on November 17, 2008.
These GLS console stocks have really picked up since I've last been on. 186 million unit prediction for the Wii now? Doesn't that seem a tad high just in the history of consoles? The forecast for total console units across the 3 platforms is very high right now compared to past generations.
Grandma would be aware of "Wii" name (since her friend might have that console) and she will NOT be aware of X360 name (I doubt that lots of grandma have it), so I think the choice is clear to her : a console that her grand children and she herself could play together is going to win against a console that she couldn't play together with her grand children (unless the grand children spefically ask for X360, which is a different scenario and will generate different decision).
I decided to stay out of Wii future stock in Nov & Dec. The possible gain and possible risk are almost the same, so no investment from me. I prefer to invest in something much less risky, even if it can only generate less profit margin.
I honestly believe that the videogame industry is fairly recession resistant to a point. Parents will usually do whatever they can to provide for their children. So far there have been no signs that the problems with the economy are significantly slowing console sales, i mean everything is up year on year, including software. What evidence is there that demand has dropped significantly?
"2.Market Saturation / plateauing demand."
I really dont think that we have reached anywhere near market saturation with the Wii yet, and again ive seen no evidence that suggests demand is dropping. Reggie said in the article below your post that supply probably wont meet demand this holiday period, and if there's going to be 1.5million Wii's on shelves, the vast majority will sell. If as you suggest sales are only 1.2million then 300,000 will still be sitting on shelves, highly unlikely i believe.
I agree. But when it comes to impulse purchases - or when Grandma is perusing the video game isle for a Christmas gift and sees a $200 console and a $250 one, the choice is less clear.
Wii is still the "budget" console of choice (for the majority at least), which is why I think it will still gain ground - a 20% increase in already outstanding sales is nothing to cry about. But a 50% increase would greatly surprise me.
@oznerol, I'd make that a "psudo-sub-$200" console. With the new dashboard, a storage solution is mandatory. I think the death-nell has sung for the Arcade SKU.
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I was shorting at 2.7m, didn't push the price down yesterday.
I'm basing my short on the Reggie's comments that they shipped "roughly" 50% more this year and I believe that to be heavily front loaded into November for the Black Sunday weekend (where clearly they sold what they shipped).
So my calculation is 1.5 * (Nov 2007 + Dec 2008) - 2m.
A complete punt to be honest but I'll either lose nothing or get a big win. If they hit 3m for December then it'll be worth the net loss to see the meltdown :D