@Phantomar,Just to be clear...I don't have a position in this title...I just think that 6 million sold is not out of the question given the likely install base at release and it being the first FF on PS3.
I would warn against going all in short this far from release, unless the price is actually ridiculous 1000dkp+, you are likely to just tie your money up for several months and make significant losses during that time as popular games tend to rise with hype nearer release. I would suggest if you are so convinced to take a small short position to track and then nearer release when the price has gone up to sell and that way you make more profit with a shorter turn around time.
The games you mention are all massive PS3-games (at least MGS and GT5P). And mabe I just don't know the magnitude of this game-series to see that 600DKP should be the right price for it.
And the fact that yours and my opinion differs, are what gives the most accurate prediction. I am all in short on this from everything above 400DKP. Just wish I could short it more ;-)
Time will show who's opinion is the most accurate :-)
@Phantomar,Take a look at sell through or expected sell through on MGS/GT5P/CoD4 on the PS3 given the install base at the time...then add the FF name which is a strong pull for many current PS3 owners who are ex PS2 owners. But...this is a open market and it is just my opinion.
20%, where did that number come from? If you use that kind of math any pc-game could/should/would sell in the 10's of millions.
I have a PS3, but I don't use it much for gaming, mostly I use it for the BlueRay-player, I tought I would do a lot of gaming on it, but as with a lot of other things I buy, it's a cool thing to have but I rearly use if.
Is there a huge FF market in the east? (china, south korea and japan), and if there were, isn't there a lot of bootlegging in those countries?
@Phantomar,PS3...at current pace will be approx 30million consoles...not really a stretch that 20% would buy an FF game...I'm more worried about the Versus.
This was at ATH over 10 mill, but that was before it was announced for Xbox360. I for one do not expect this to sell 10 mill copies total. If it did, I'd expect the ratio in Xbox vs PS3 to be 60/40.
How this game can be selling at almost 600DKP just baffels me. What am I not getting here? Where is the huge market for this game?
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