I don't want to direct any comments at any particular person here but for one, cut newer people some slack here...
while most people do back up their predictions with data, I really don't feel someone should have to back up any and all comments he makes on game sales. Some people are just expressing their own opinion... they may end up being wrong, very wrong... who knows? But in the end isn't it opinions that count, the opinion of each and every person who is deciding what game to buy? Wouldn't some guy and his friends wanting the game, be a small indication of the games possible success?
And wouldn't positive and raving reviews of a game be a better indication of a successful game than bad reviews.
Yes, the PS3 has basically been in a sales slump from the start, but yes the spring is always slow too. I think that there is still some pretty good interest in the PS3 out there, people know it has more power and has more stuff, but really don't like the price. Sony and Playstation are strong brand names, don't count them out yet. Some good games/extras vs. 360 is what would help too. (i.e. rumors of GTAIV fitting on a bluray but having problems fitting on to a dvd possibly losing on some content) The PS3 needs to strut it's stuff... uh.. like the newest soccer game coming out is going to have high texture quality on PS3 vs 360 because of the space on the disc.
I would have to agree with Laoldar. The PS3s current trend of bad sales is nothing new, it has plagued the console since launch. Also zeromous, while your small test group of people is a good start for trying to gain a larger picture for whether or not PS3 owners (or future owners) will pick this game up, it may be that your limited sample is from a biased group of PS3 owners, just as if I asked most of the people I know that have a PS3 if they will pick up GT5, nearly all of them would say yes (because most of the PS3 owners I know like the GT series), but it would be rash to apply that to the general group of PS3 owners.
Also, saying that just 1 in 5 PS3 owners needs to pick this up, while seemingly not that hard, is actually quite hard for most games to accomplish. While I agree this game will sell around a million (1.2 million to stay consistent with my previous prediction), I don't think it will have as high an attach rate. Rather I think this game (through the fact that it will also be sold online) could have a very long tail and while having a lower attach rate, it won't because it is selling bad, rather because it keeps around the same sales but the user base of the PS3 grows. To make a more solid example, I could see this game having a Super Smash Bros. Melee like long tail.
I would get into the current simexchange pricing of the PS3 (which I think might be a bit overpriced, but if Sony keeps the PS3 going for a decade, it might not be), but that is for another stock page. I still think this game, as a conservative estimate, will sell around 1.2 million over its lifetime.
I never said anything about those being fringe sites. What I am saying is that you can't use the opinions of review sites to judge future sales. Many of the top selling games get medicore reviews while a lot of top rated games don't sell that well. Reviewers who have to play through games for a living don't have the same perspective on games as the mainstream audience does. Look at movie reviews...was Spider Man 3 hurt by poor reviews? Did it matter? How many high-rated flicks get passed over by audiences? My point is that reviews don't matter nearly as much as some people think.
Oh and don't tlak about "specious points" when your argument consists of talking to a few people and taking soundbytes from a website. Hardly a meaty argument for high sales. If you don't like what people are saying, fine. But don't get combative and act as if you posted a detailed analysis when you did not.
And the PS3 has stumbed since launch, don't pretend it's a new development. And yes, there can be a slump in spring. Doesn't explain why the Wii is selling 4 times the amount of the PS3 (and the 360 is even selling twice as many units). When your console has only been out for half a year, it shouldn't be slumping like this.
Just because the SE price for the lifetime PS3 sales is still very overpriced doesn't mean that the last few months is an unimportant blip in sales.
Looks like its a bit 50/50. Based on my number of up bids and down bids on my comment.
@Loaldar Those are all extremely respected sources (Read by normal non-gamers, LBP's target market I might add), what makes you think its somehow fringe?
I mean you guys are hi-ranked and everything, but this site is all about speculation, and neither one of you have pointed out a valid argument against what I'm saying, except for two specious straw-man counter-points.
That's ok TOP 10, I'm not impressed by your opinion.
Also talking down the PS3 based on the last 2 months of sales is ridiculous by the market's own prediction. Especially when there is historical president for the slump in the Spring.
People might be a bit cautious now considering that the huge early buzz for the PS3 hasn't translated into steady sales.
Games that online sites gush about can still turn into huge flops and you have to wonder if the target audience of the PS3 will respond to this kind of game.
I'm commenting on everything I read here. Articles, notes from other comments.
"LittleBigPlanet is perhaps one of the most dazzling demos I've seen in the last 10 years." BBC
"This could be something very special" 1UP
"If you really need comparisons, the game is like Line Rider meets Garry's Mod meets Super Mario Bros. meets an orgasm." Kotaku
"LittleBigPlanet is the epitome of imagination" IGN
"easily the best PlayStation 3 game that Sony has ever shown off" Wired
"this is the reason to buy PlayStation 3" Slashdot
Well thats funny, a few months ago, everyone at my office was talking about Wii tennis. Now they're talking about Big Little Planet.
Is that enough supporting information? I mean games with this kind of buzz, don't sell short of 1 million copies.
So far every Playstation 3 owner I know (limited sample), plans to buy this game as a must have. By the time this comes out there will be 5 million playstation3s in the world at least.
All it would take is for 1 in 5 to purchase this game.
So yes I believe this stock is clearly undervalued.
Here on TheSimExchange if you are going to make a statement like "This stock is clearly undervalued" you had better be supplying some form of proof to back up your statement. I Would guess you got downbid because you did not provide that proof so we are expected to just take your word for it.
Here are some examples of the buzz this game is generating, all are quotes cited right on Media Molecule's website:
"LittleBigPlanet is perhaps one of the most dazzling demos I've seen in the last 10 years." BBC
"This could be something very special" 1UP
"If you really need comparisons, the game is like Line Rider meets Garry's Mod meets Super Mario Bros. meets an orgasm." Kotaku
"LittleBigPlanet is the epitome of imagination" IGN
"easily the best PlayStation 3 game that Sony has ever shown off" Wired
"this is the reason to buy PlayStation 3" Slashdot
To me this IPO is strong bullish. I have a large amount of my long equity invested in this stock and continue to invest more. I have already seen over a 20 percent return. Buy this stock people!
7
while most people do back up their predictions with data, I really don't feel someone should have to back up any and all comments he makes on game sales.
Some people are just expressing their own opinion...
they may end up being wrong, very wrong... who knows?
But in the end isn't it opinions that count, the opinion of each and every person who is deciding what game to buy? Wouldn't some guy and his friends wanting the game, be a small indication of the games possible success?
And wouldn't positive and raving reviews of a game be a better indication of a successful game than bad reviews.
Yes, the PS3 has basically been in a sales slump from the start, but yes the spring is always slow too. I think that there is still some pretty good interest in the PS3 out there, people know it has more power and has more stuff, but really don't like the price. Sony and Playstation are strong brand names, don't count them out yet. Some good games/extras vs. 360 is what would help too. (i.e. rumors of GTAIV fitting on a bluray but having problems fitting on to a dvd possibly losing on some content) The PS3 needs to strut it's stuff... uh.. like the newest soccer game coming out is going to have high texture quality on PS3 vs 360 because of the space on the disc.