The longer they wait to release it the higher the potential userbase they'll have to sell to earlier on, which could be a positive... but 2.6 million is still a pretty big jump from anything in the series so far.
Really it's hard to have much good idea on how it will sell when they haven't shown anything about the game for a year. Is it hot or not? *shrug*
I posed a question to the community about the price of this game, pointing out that I had already done some analysis that I think has held up. In response you tell me to short a game I already am (why would I say a stock is overvalued and not short it?). That was not relevant in my opinion, was certainly not an argument, and not needed.
Well, I didn't see the name of FFCC:TCB on your public profile. The only one that show up is : - Far Cry 2 (PC) - Guitar Hero World Tour (PS3) - The Conduit (Wii)
The above fact means your short isn't significant enough. It only take about 1.6 Million DKP investment for it to show up on your public list (based on your short on Conduit). That is what I meant by "why didn't you short them down ?"
Or are you expecting me to calculate your position on FFCC:TCB ?
And many thanks for the downbid on my post. If you wanted to downbid any opposition / argument, I think I will not discuss things with you anymore.
I am already short, why do you tell me to do something I am already doing? If a game is overvalued, I short it. I do not say a game is over/under-valued and back up my opinion by taking a position. Contribute to the discussion or try to start a relevant discussion to the game rather than telling people what to do.
Previous comment outlines why this stock was already overvalued but in light of recent news another strong case has been made for this stock's decline.
Final Fantasy Crystal Chronicles: Ring of Fates sold only 67,300 in its first month of sales in America. The GLS stock for that game promptly plummeted with release of the news. Both the DS and Wii Crystal Chronicles have been overvalued for long periods of time, it took hard sales data for the DS version's GLS price to drop. The Wii version most likely won't sell substantially better than the DS version, so as has been stated previously in the comments on this stock page, the price should drop.
In light of the recent data, my previous prediction of sub-220DKP has been revised to sub-180DKP.
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Really it's hard to have much good idea on how it will sell when they haven't shown anything about the game for a year. Is it hot or not? *shrug*