VGC has Fallout 3 (Xbox 360) at just 1.98 million copies. I had expected a title of this anticipation and quality to be higher, but its also cross-platform. I think the game has the legs to make it to upper 2 millions. The stock price is probably about right.
"Bethesda Softworks®, a ZeniMax Media company, and Best Buy Co., Inc. have announced that in response to huge demand for Bethesda's award-winning upcoming game, Fallout® 3, there will be midnight openings at Best Buy stores across the country the evening of October 27."
I think it's going to be a good month for Fallout.
If my fiancee (who mainly plays animal crossing for 20 minutes daily) is excited to buy this over Animal Crossing on the Wii, I think that means its likely there more than a few who will get behind the "Fallout" (hype).
The reason she explained to me is this: Fallout and Fallout2 are widely regarded as some of the best RPGs ever made. RPG fans are salivating for something next gen, and this is a truly NEXT-GEN incarnation of a very old and popular franchise. No one would be questioning a new Deus Ex game for instance.
I think/hope this is relatively comparable to FFIV debuting on the SNES way back- in terms of taking an old franchise and updating it for a whole new audience.
I have been shorting this game for a long time now, at the current price of 370DKP I feel it is quite overpriced. Even though this series has garnered a near legendary name (or so the media likes to constantly perpetrate), I do not feel that it has the selling power of Final Fantasy, Dragon Quest, or Elder Scrolls. This game is being released in a period when many other RPGs are being developed and companies have had enough time to make mature games for the Xbox360, hardly the same could be said when Elder Scrolls IV was released years ago.
Not only that, but this game is being released on all three platforms, which would certainly take sales away from the Xbox360 version. DLC does not mean that a game will automatically sell a boat load more copies, many people do not even follow this news and many more would not be willing to pay the fee (if there is one) for future downloadable content, especially when by the time it is released, they will have moved on to another game.
Furthermore, the PS3 now has the trophy system in place, which should only mature and caused more people to buy PS3 games for the trophies as they now do for Achievements on the Xbox360.
At most I see this game selling 3 million on the Xbox360, it seems that the exchange is starting to overvalued many Xbox360 games, especially RPGs (including Fable).
@Gaara42, As of Now, simEx are predicting 7.39 Million, significantly increased from 5.84 Million one month ago (June 10), thanks to X360 price (to 4.39 M, from 322 yesterday) increase caused by DLS news.
I have started to notice this game, and I think this stock (X360 version) is a good short opportunity.
When I was looking for past sales data, I was thinking the same thing, that the titles were released nearly a decade ago, so I doubted whether finding the data would reveal anything, as the current landscape had changed so much. It would be akin to looking at Doom 2 sales and using them to predict how Doom 4 would sell.
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