@_thegreatone_,What are you talking about?Of course its going to sell better than halo.Halo will not sell as well as 1.Mario games are slow seller games and very often sell very well 2.Looking at how the wii is selling, there is going to be a very large install base for this game.
Take a look on how the DS version is selling here and those sales started on a 3million install base
So we are predicting 100million for the wii and the way its selling, i think it could be more comparing it to this graph
So there are a number of reasons on how why this might sell well.
Forget all the stats this looks like a good stock to short atthemoment based on the fact that it's actually predicted to sell more than the xbox 360's most popular game so far- halo 3?! I know this looks like a corker of a game but i don't believe it will sell in the region of wii play, mario galaxy or brawl.l
Forget all the stats this looks like a good stock to short atthemoment based on the fact that it's actually predicted to sell more than the xbox 360's most popular game so far- halo 3?! I know this looks like a corker of a game but i don't believe it will sell in the region of wii play, mario galaxy or brawl.l
Remember, Nintendo titles also tend to have better legs and not be as front loaded as other games. We should remember this when looking at lifetime sales.
Unlike many other franchises, a game like Mario Kart will only see one version in a console generation, so it is a game that can sell solidly for 3-4 years (look at Kart and Smash Bros sales for the GC). So while they might not start out strong, they will tend to have good sales for years and not face cannibalization of sales by newer versions.
I think that sales of Mario Galaxy over the next 4-6 months will either prove or disprove this hypothesis.
@Alpha, I see your point, but the difference between your comparisons with Super Mario Galaxy and Metroid Prime 3 is that Mario Kart appeals more to a casual fan base then either of those two games do. Racing a go-kart is something that even casual fans will find fun and engaging especially with the new Wii steering wheel controls. This means that game will be able to target all three major groups of gamers: hardcore, mainstream, and casual. This fact equals more sales.
@lstormy10, I think the story with the Wii is that it has greatly expanded the video game market to casual players. I see the 100 million+ forecast that we have as assuming many people who don't generally play video games picking up a Wii for Wii sports. This is confirmed anecdotally and also from NPD sales.
Wii hardware sales are very strong, but software sales have lagged. Mario Galaxy does not appear to be selling anywhere near the numbers we had been expecting--the problem is because we took the Gamecube numbers and scaled them out to the Wii install base. Metroid 3 did no better on the Wii than it did on GameCube.
The problem is that many of the new gamers who buy Wiis have no intention of buying anymore games--they bought the Wii for Wii sports. For this reason, we can merely expand Wii game sales based on Wii hardware sales.
@Alpha, but on the other hand if you estimate that the attachment rate will be half of what it was for previous Mario Kart titles such as the one on N64 (many did not enjoy the Mario Kart title on GameCube as much as the N64 and the Wii version seems to be letting go of the two riders per a kart aspect of the GameCube version), then you are still looking a solid attach rate and by the simExchange forecasts for hardware sales for Wii, then the lower attach rate would still result in sales that could match or surpass the current prediction for sales.
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