@lstormy10, oh I can definitely agree that game specific analysis would be better, just saying his analysis is relevant to the games he posted. Take his analysis how you will, but I am short these three stocks as well for similar reasons.
@Alpha, I agree that his analysis may cover multiple games, but posting the same thing over and over on different game pages is not the best way in sharing his own analysis of a game. I believe that many people would agree that a analysis that is more specific about the title that you are talking about is better than a unspecific analysis posted three times. Also, his line that says (or I believe it is supposed to say) that Mario Kart is currently predicted to sell 16 million is from a different posting of his for another game, showing a lack of time taken to analyze this specific title.
@CrAzZyYmAn, the software attachment rate is currently improving for the Wii as it has just turned 1 year old. Also, past consoles that the Mario Kart series has released on have not had the best software attachment rates (i.e. GameCube). One last thing, please try to come up with original comments for each game you are commenting on and don't just copy and paste the same thing among multiple different games and just change the title and the number that is currently predicted.
This price is insane, the Wii has a horrible software attachment rate. With this being the case Mario Kart will only sell around 5-7 Million, 16 Million. Yes Mario games sell huge numbers, however all previous games have been on consoles with higher software attachment rates. With the Wii having multiple games that are predicting 13+ Million sales, the low software attachment rate would have to change drastically for these predictions to come true.
I would say (going by the numbers being forecasted for the Wii at this point in time on the simExchange) that this stock could be undervalued for a couple of reasons. First, Nintendo has in the past only released one Mario Kart game per a home console meaning that this would be most likely that one Mario Kart game many would pick up for their Wii. Also, from the history of Mario Kart DS, these Mario Kart games tend to keep selling for quite awhile until another, better kart racing game is released. If Mario Kart DS has already sold 9 million by the numbers you have stated, the Mario Kart on Wii should sell more most likely because pretty much any racing game tends to do better on a home console. Also, Mario Kart is able to appeal to both so-called "hardcore" gamers and "casual" gamers - meaning more sales. One last thing to note is that this game has been noted as having a large online component for players, and as research that has been posted in articles on the simExchange have stated, games with online components tend to sell more. So, if the N64 version of Mario Kart sold about 10 million without online on a much less popular console with a lower total installed base, then I would say the Wii version of Mario Kart will end up selling a good number more than 10 million - possibly more than the current forecasted price depending on exact release date and sell rate of the Wii.
Are you forgetting that Christmas is ahead of us? Nintedo forcast 24 Million units shipped until Q2/08. Normally Q4 of a year = Q1-Q3 in this buisness. At least in US and EU (Japan not that much).
@shrapnelmagnet, stocks have been getting delisted all the time when trading and discussion basically stop, indicating the market (the public) has come to a general agreement of what total lifetime sales will be.
The stock market is forward looking, so we don't have to wait til the game has finally stopped sellin every last copy to know how a game has or will sell over its lifetime. Once sales hit a consistent downward spiral, you should be able to project to a great accuracy what the lifetime sales will be...so we wouldn't have to wait years and years.
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