Its interesting you mention marketing the package correctly, I think in my perspective this has always been part of the problem. Nintendo is extremely effective at marketing software and platforms, but peripherals always seem to get the raw end of the deal in this type of arrangement. We can agree on two points: Marketing is Key, and this will do well in Japan due to space/lifestyle considerations!
And there we have it. Friendly agree to disagree I can accept that fully. My remark about respect was not directed at you at all: it seems my downbids are consistently below the mean even though I try to be thoughtful in my opinions. In my perfect world we would both be positively bid for discussing our different perspectives, but bidding seems to be more right/wrong oriented on TSE.
I actually lose net bids simply by posting doesn't matter what it is! I actually trended this :) I rely solely on articles to achieve net bidding. I was interested to see if there was a pattern and there is...
You wasn't the only one downbidded. So was Laoldar, and so was me.
I can see your point. But the times that peripherals (not only first, also third party) bomb (all of them) are over. GH showed that it is possible to sell such games, in masses. So did Singstar.
The thing is, that Wii fit will hit that audience thats at the moment the Wii software selling problem: Those who bought the Wii only for Wii Sports. And its a damn fun hometrainer (as far as I can see) with a lot of statistic info, for a price of aprox. $320. Ask your self (or google) how big the fitnes market for hometrainer is in the EU and US. How much does a home trainer cost? And know think about how much this thing could sell, if marketed right.
As for Japan: It fits perfectly, because it is a home trainer that doesn't need much space. Space is something really really important in Japan. As fas as I know it is allready hard to preorder it for export at the moment, because Nintendo will most likley not meet demand in the first week.
Or lets just say: Yes Wii fit could bomb, or could be a sleeper hit. Both is possible. I believe the one thing, you believe the other.
Another thing is for sure, it sells at least one copy in Europe. Thats mine ;)
@zeromous, i totally respect your opinion! I have similar views on the subject. It's a wildcard IMO how wall Wii Fit will do, but it still is an peripheral... and while WiiSports defines the very nature of teh Wii through it's focus on motion sensing controls, Wii Fit tries to add something different to the equation.
I agree about this pattern. Its pretty common knowledge.
As for the target audience, while I agree they share the same target, I have a lot of reason to be extremely skeptical of this peripheral succeeding in this space.
There is historical information to support this theory. WiiSports and BrainAge are hardly the first games to transcend traditional target audiences, but they are certainly the most recent.
My point is I find it extremely humourous that we so readily discount historical data on this type of packaged peripheral, with no promise of future support across the platform, but accept the link between WiiFit and WiiSports as gospel.
I've been voted down for citing historical data, for challenging others to cite historical data, and the best anyone can come up with is that because WiiSports does well so will WiiFit?
Its not logical to make that connection in terms of sales when the product is only similar in target audience, and general theme. By your logic the WiiZapper should sell at least as many copies as Zelda:Twilight Princess. We both know it wont.
Anyway I respect your opinion Ben, we'll see at the end of the day. I just wish people around here could respect mine and consider it at least somewhat valid.
GH is availible in Europe, but not that smash hit like in the U.S. and Singstar is available in the U.S. by the way, you just don't buy it :o)
There is one: The target audience, like Wii Sport/ Brain Age: It as casual as you get it, and that leads to a specified sales pattern: Constant Sales on a level. The other Extreme are FPS: BIIIG first weeks and drop off sharp. And I alway spoke about the sales pattern.
Your inability to distinguish between two things (peripheral sold with cheap demo software and full game sold with peripheral to fully utilize it) is going to prevent you from making any relevant comparison.
You know how big the market for fitnes toys in the U.S? And Sinstar and Eye Toy are very successfull in one teritory. Yes it didn't break 8 Million, but it only has Europe to work with. GH doesn't break 8 Million because it only sells in NA. This thing will sell world wide, like brain age: Week after Week after Week with constant number, and hit the 8 Million sometime.
Wii sports is selling because its accessible, and doesn't use intimidating add-on peripherals. People are attracted to Wii sports because it makes regular games accessible. In Japan, Im not sure why but my guess is well that its simply a popular game!
GH has nothing to do with this as its clearly a third party peripheral. I'm talking historically successful first party peripherals of which there are very few.
Congratulations on mentioning Singstar and Eye Toy, but somehow I don't think that broke the 8 million threshold I mentioned for my little contest! Please correct me if I'm wrong (I know you guys will!)
In fact, I submit that Singstar and Eyetoy are perfect examples of first party peripherals that make games more accessible but fail to be anything beyond special interest in the market. So yes I agree Ben, Singstar and Eyetoy are more comparable to Wii-fit than something like Wii-sports selling like hotcakes in Japan.
See it boils down to this: I think there's a huge market in NA that won't buy this game simply for what it is. FIT.
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Its interesting you mention marketing the package correctly, I think in my perspective this has always been part of the problem. Nintendo is extremely effective at marketing software and platforms, but peripherals always seem to get the raw end of the deal in this type of arrangement. We can agree on two points: Marketing is Key, and this will do well in Japan due to space/lifestyle considerations!
And there we have it. Friendly agree to disagree I can accept that fully. My remark about respect was not directed at you at all: it seems my downbids are consistently below the mean even though I try to be thoughtful in my opinions.
In my perfect world we would both be positively bid for discussing our different perspectives, but bidding seems to be more right/wrong oriented on TSE.
I actually lose net bids simply by posting doesn't matter what it is! I actually trended this :) I rely solely on articles to achieve net bidding. I was interested to see if there was a pattern and there is...