@Joe80, Well, I have said my piece, and you have said yours. Let's agree to disagree on whether Nintendo "intentionally create shortage to get hype" or not on Wii and Wii Fit.
Don't worry about the downbid thing. I wouldn't automatically think that you or anyone else I am arguing with are the one who did it, and I would rather risk a down bid or two rather than keeping silent on things I disagree on.
@apujanata, First, I just want you to know I was not the one to downbid you. I don't downbid people I am in middle of debate with, unless they're obnoxious which you have not ever been.
Second, the google link I provided also had Jesse Divnich believe that Nintendo diverted supply.
No one has ever come out against what these two believe, and it wouldn't make sense for Nintendo to say, 'hey we're shipping more of our product here instead of shipping it to you'.
Third, Nintendo has been known to divert supply of the Wii to different regions, which is also shown in my google link. It comes up that easily.
Staggered launches can be a necessary evil. I'm sure you would not be so against them if you wanted a game but something prevented you from getting it when it came out and sold out, leaving others to play it while you cannot, especially if its an online game.
I agree that some supply constrain is because of not being able to produce enough, which has happened with Wii products. But, I also think if they knew they could not meet demand, keeping the same launch date instead of staggering a game launch to meet demand is intentionally creating shortage and thus hype. And diverting supply to regions creates even less supply and more hype.
@Joe80, The google link you provided only point out that Pachter "believes" that Wii Fit is diverted from US to Europe. It is NOT a Nintendo statement.
I have lost count on how many times Pachter predicted / analyze things, and it turned out wrong. Like PS3 price cut etc. I would consider this "believes" as another one case where Pachter is wrong.
Additional consideration : Article was dated early Jun 2008 (June 2 and June 3). By that time, even NPD May 08 is not out yet, and he already predicted that Wii Fit was diverted to Europe, even though later NPD data showed 687K Wii Fit sold for May 08. That figure is only eclipsed by Nov 08, Dec 08 and Jan 09 #.
I don't agree with staggered launches. As a gamer, I would prefer to play a game as soon as possible. I don't like waiting 6 months or even 1 year for translation from Japanese to English, so I prefer staggered launch even if it means supply constrain. I prefer region free games, which is another problem Wii had.
I think you didn't differentiate between "intentional supply constrain to built hype" vs. "unintentional supply constrain because production capacity is not enough, and Nintendo are too conservative to increase their production capacity sharply just to get bigger short term sales while having problem down the road when demand dwindle".
@apujanata, Nintendo did it the month that the Wii was launched in NA. If they did it once, who's to say they didn't do it again. They also diverted shipments of the Wii itself to EU instead of NA, and probably other games as well. They're just doing smart business. Although at the expense of those who can't find the games they want to buy. Link.
If it's supply constrained in multiple markets, then they could've done staggered launches, which has been a customary setup for some time in the industry. I think Nintendo feels though that the demand/supply situation builds hype. Even if it was constrained in EU though that doesn't mean units were not diverted there.
@Joe80, Can you point out the exact months that Nintendo did that (diverting supply from US to Europe) ? IIRC, the problem came from very big appetite of US compared to Europe, not from supply diverting from US to Europe.
You do realize that Wii Fit are also supply constrained in Europe, just not as long or as severe as US ? IMO, Wii Fit supply constrain is not because of intentional Nintendo decision, but it happen because Nintendo have limited production capacity, and didn't want to over-produced things in short term just to have headache in the long term (when demand decrease).
Let's analyze those "supply constrained because of supply diverted to Europe" months, and determine for ourselves whether that "rumour" are true, or are just some "black smear campaign" or "uninformed rumour monger". You know, like those "Wii is a fad" rumour, or that "PS3 have no games".
@apujanata, So most of that data doesn't show that summer is any better on a per month basis than the 'slow' period you mentioned. Thus it will will be determined by release date imo and like I said for some reason I've picked up Sept as the release date.
@apujanata, To be fair he said April-Sept, and I think he meant that summer period in general because Jan-March is 3 months while April to Sept is 6 months.
@PhilHarrision, "they have a rep of constraining supply don't they?" What are you basing this statement on ? Game over book, which is talking about Nintendo 20 years ago ?
Or the fact that Wii Fit and Wii are supply constrained in US ? Do you really think it is because Nintendo purposely supply constrain them, and it is not caused by extraordinarily high sales of Wii & Wii Fit in US (compared to Japan & Europe) ?
Shorting something because you "expect" Nintendo (or Sony or MSFT) to short supply something is a risky assumption. You are free to do it, but I will not do it.
Please note that assumption of early Nov release of WFP is just an assumption on my part. It could be earlier, but it could also be later. When shorting something, better to expect the worse (like Dec 09 release of WFP), and invest accordingly.
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Well, I have said my piece, and you have said yours. Let's agree to disagree on whether Nintendo "intentionally create shortage to get hype" or not on Wii and Wii Fit.
Don't worry about the downbid thing. I wouldn't automatically think that you or anyone else I am arguing with are the one who did it, and I would rather risk a down bid or two rather than keeping silent on things I disagree on.