@PhilHarrision, "Is April to Sept a better period for sales than Jan - March?"
Let's see : S/W : Jan - Mar 08 : 2.22 Billion Apr - Oct 08 : 4.51 Billion (about double)
H/W, console only (since we are talking console S/W) : Jan - Mar 08, console : 3.8 Million Apr - Oct 08, console : 8.95 Million (2.35x)
How about older data, not 2008 (probably affected by gaming industry booming) : Jan - Mar 02, console : 1.78 Million Apr - Oct 02, console : 5.55 Million (3.11x)
Jan - Mar 03, console : 2.27 Million Apr - Oct 03, console : 4.18 Million (1.84x)
Based on those data, do you think it is reasonable to expect at least 87% increase from Jan - Mar 09 to Apr - Oct 09 ?
Wii Fit Plus includes the original Wii Fit programs afaik...so there will be no need for a stand alone Wii Fit disc.
Is April to Sept a better period for sales than Jan - March? Seems sales overall are off this year on everything and I don't know why the summer would be any better for sales than the winter (post Xmas)
You don't think Nin will hold back shipments of Wii Fit in the last month in order to build hype for Wii Fit Plus (they have a rep of constraining supply don't they?)
However...the time line in in favor of your argument...I for some reason have Sept release in my head for this...not sure why.
@apujanata, Errata : April 1 - Oct 30 is a 7 months period, not six months period. Estimating 8 Millions shipment for 7 months is quite cautious (17% lowered weekly average), compared to 4.21 Million actual shipment from Jan 1 - Mar 31, 2009.
@PhilHarrision, Last shipment we know, by March 31, 209, is 18.22 Million (more or less). Since Wii Fit are almost always in sold out status in US, and keep on getting #1 in UK in 2009, we can safely assume that shipment=sold. In 3 month period of Jan 1 - Mar 31, 2009, Nintendo shipped 4.21 Million unit of Wii Fit, during a slow period.
Question : - When will Wii Fit Plus release ? Current release date is a vague Fall 09. If you believe that it will be released Nov 09, is it too much to expect Nintendo to ship at least 8 Million unit in the period of April 1 - Oct 30, 2009 (six month period, with June period included)? If you agree with 8 Million unit, then you have 26 Million shipment / sold.
If you want to go cautious, you might expect 5 Million more sales from April to Oct 09. This means any short you do at 2500 DKP price point only give you 10% potential profit. I believe that 10% potential profit for any short is too little, too risky.
What happen IF Nintendo decided to continue selling Wii Fit, instead of discontinuing them and replacing them with Wii Fit Plus (2 SKU at the same time) ? What happen IF Nintendo decided to release a stand alone Wii Fit SKU (without Balance Board), for those new Wii Fit Plus owner who didn't have Wii Fit ?
Even if everything is according to the best case scenario for lowest LTD, shorting this stock is still very, very risky, with low potential profit (IMO).
@PhilHarrision, Damn, after almost finally getting out of my short on Wii Fit over the past year, this happens. I'm hesitant to short more than what I have left due to not knowing how much stock will be out there until the original is sold out. But I don't see it really selling more than what the current stock price is at.
According to this article from Kotaku while review the Wii Fit Plus they say the following:
I learned that it (Wii Fit Plus) is not as much a sequel to Wii Fit as a replacement for the original in the market.
So...I've been bring this up since April 5th when I posted that some rumors were gathering about WF+...Wii Fit seems destined to be a stop sale with WF+ comes out...do we really think it will sell 5+ million over the summer?
With the recent Wii Fit Plus rumours (set for E3) I will ask the same question I did in April...since I'm short on Wii Fit.
Wii Fit is SOFTWARE right? That is what we are trading. It happens to be bundled with a piece of hardware just like Wii Play is bundled.
So...if Wii Fit Plus replaces Wii Fit as the software in the bundle I'd like to confirm that this will be treated different. It seems odd to me in the face of this news (and the release of Active) that Wii Fit continues to climb in price.
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"Is April to Sept a better period for sales than Jan - March?"
Let's see :
S/W :
Jan - Mar 08 : 2.22 Billion
Apr - Oct 08 : 4.51 Billion (about double)
H/W, console only (since we are talking console S/W) :
Jan - Mar 08, console : 3.8 Million
Apr - Oct 08, console : 8.95 Million (2.35x)
How about older data, not 2008 (probably affected by gaming industry booming) :
Jan - Mar 02, console : 1.78 Million
Apr - Oct 02, console : 5.55 Million (3.11x)
Jan - Mar 03, console : 2.27 Million
Apr - Oct 03, console : 4.18 Million (1.84x)
Based on those data, do you think it is reasonable to expect at least 87% increase from Jan - Mar 09 to Apr - Oct 09 ?