Hereīs some data that puts the DSīs success into perspective.
In the U.S. DS has sold more so far this year (1.70M from January - April) than any other system has over those same months in the past 7 years (I donīt have data going back any further).
For comparison, PS2 sold 1.33M from Jan - Apr of 02 (and sold a total of 8.39M that year); And GBA sold 1.65M from Jan - Apr of 03 (and went on to sell a 7.78M that year).
With 2.5M DSīs being manufactured/month, and Brain Age 2, Picross and Zelda coming out later this year in America, It is most likely that DS will break all previous records this year. And this is just in the U.S.. In Europe, DS is even more popular; and in Japan, even more popular still.
GBA, in comparison, only sold very well in America. In the end, DS will probably outsell GBA in America by a small amount, but outsell GBA by 2:1 in every territory outside America.
Like I said before in more detail (7 posts below), even if DS sales drop off faster than has ever happened before with a first place system (which since Nintendo has 79 DS titles in development is very unlikely) it would STILL reach about 130M.
I think the reason this stock is still so undervalued is that since most people here are American, they see that DS will probably only be slightly more successful in America than the GBA was (which is true), but donīt realize that it is set to double GBA sales outside of America.
Now that theyīre starting to use DS in Japanese schools to teach english(with excellent results), I think that my previous estimate of 150M is too low now.
ErikAston, the DS is doing far better than even you say. The 471K it sold in the U.S. this April is >40% higher than the PS2 did in its best April ever (Apr 05), and about 13% higher than the GBA did in its best April (Apr 03). In Europe its selling even more, and in Japan even more than that.
Nintendo recently announced that they have 79 DS titles in development. Even if Nintendo cancels 15 of them and releases one every month, thatīs still over 5 more years of major support. Nintendo KNOWS they have a phenomenon on their hands.
Right now Nintendo is producing 2.5M DSīs a month (which is 30M/year), and thatīs still not enough to satisfy demand!
Note that Nintendo saves up supply for the holidays (November - January) when about 50% of yearly sales take place.
Iīll make some conservative predictions, assuming Nintendoīs next handheld comes out in about 3 years (which is most likely).
March 08: +30M (assuming production continues at current rate)
March 09: +22M (assuming a fast drop off starts in 2008)
March 00: +16M
March 01: +11M (assuming the DS successor is released half way through this fiscal year)
March 02: +7M
After March 02: +4M
Thatīs 130M. And it would take the fastest drop off for a first place handheld or console EVER for the DS to end up that low. Realistically, the DS will sell about 150M.
Remember, Nintendo has 79 DS games in development! Think big - Nintendo certainly is.
Between USA and Canada, DS has now sold 500K units in 3 consecutive months. Its possible that this high level of sales is the new norm for DS. It may be wise to see if it manages this high level again next month, post-Pokelaunch, but if 500K/month NA is the new norm, that suggests yearly sales of 9, 10 or 11 million.
That kind of breakthrough, performing as well and even above what PS2 and GBA have done in NA, could result in a 27 or 28 million sales year for DS worldwide. That would put DS at 67 million through next March. Even if a new Nintendo handheld launched next April, DS would sell another 20+ million on top of that 67. If a new Nintendo handheld debuts in 2009 or later, DS will likely top 100 million, and if it doesn't debut until 2011 or later, DS could well become the best-selling system ever. Remember: the best-selling systems like PS, GBA and soon PS2, all move over 20 million units AFTER their successors debut.
Basically, I think its time we start predicting sales of over 100 million for DS.
If the mediacreate numbers for the last 4 weeks (including a different starting point of 5 weeks ago) are anything to put money on for making comparison to NPD numbers, the DS has definitely outsold this number this month.
I would say it was definitely bolstered by Pokemon.
New March NPD data has been released. Of the top 100 selling games, 28 were for DS. Only PS2 was ahead with 30. For comparison, the PSP had 5. For total unit sales (hardware, software and accesories), DS made up 15.4% - 177% of what the PSP sold.
The reason that the unit sales % is so small for portables is because of the lack of sales of controllers, memory cards, faceplates, etc.
This news is not at all surprising for the DS. It shows that it did just as well in March in the U.S. as most people thought. (See industry news for link.)
I posted this in the Wii discussion, but since this is such huge news for Latin Americans, I want to post it here too.
Nintendo will be opening a factory in Brasil (see Industry News).
Obviously this could increase worldwide production, but also prices should come way down for us (perhaps even to U.S. levels), more Nintendo products will sell here, and Nintendo could very well start releasing their games in Spanish and Portuguese here! (they translate their games for Europe anyways, so this would not be hard to do.)
So basically Nintendo might start to treat us almost as well as Europeans.
Last month NPD ran up to april 8th, so you should only count the weeks ending 15th, 22nd and 29th plus the coming week to get any idea of NPD data for april. So far those 3 weeks are at around 410k for DS. Most likely it will end up somewhere between 500k and 550k, which means current futures seem to be priced alright.
6
In the U.S. DS has sold more so far this year (1.70M from January - April) than any other system has over those same months in the past 7 years (I donīt have data going back any further).
For comparison, PS2 sold 1.33M from Jan - Apr of 02 (and sold a total of 8.39M that year); And GBA sold 1.65M from Jan - Apr of 03 (and went on to sell a 7.78M that year).
With 2.5M DSīs being manufactured/month, and Brain Age 2, Picross and Zelda coming out later this year in America, It is most likely that DS will break all previous records this year. And this is just in the U.S.. In Europe, DS is even more popular; and in Japan, even more popular still.
GBA, in comparison, only sold very well in America. In the end, DS will probably outsell GBA in America by a small amount, but outsell GBA by 2:1 in every territory outside America.
Like I said before in more detail (7 posts below), even if DS sales drop off faster than has ever happened before with a first place system (which since Nintendo has 79 DS titles in development is very unlikely) it would STILL reach about 130M.
I think the reason this stock is still so undervalued is that since most people here are American, they see that DS will probably only be slightly more successful in America than the GBA was (which is true), but donīt realize that it is set to double GBA sales outside of America.
Now that theyīre starting to use DS in Japanese schools to teach english(with excellent results), I think that my previous estimate of 150M is too low now.