@Powertrade,If it truly is a replacement and is (as I believe it will be in August/September) then the current iteration is going to be curtailed during the peak Xmas season...so I don't see the current version selling close to its norm for fiscal 2010.
DS Lite Announced Jan 2006 ... on sale March 2006...a 2 month delay. DSi Announced Oct 2008...on sale Nov 2008.. a one month delay DSXL/LL Announced Oct 2009...on sale Nov 2009...a one month delay.
Given the above I don't see why a June reveal of the 3DS would result in the product not launching fairly soon after.
In today's WSJ article on the new Nintendo 3D device, it mentions DS has sold "more than 125 million units" with sales peaking in the fiscal year ending March 31, 2009. Sales for this fiscal year (ending March 31, 2010) are forecast by Nintendo to be at 30 million units (vs 31.2 million units the year before).
I think if the new 3D device results in a complete end to manufacturing of the DS line in 2011, DS sales should top out at 155 million world wide. If sales continue through FY ending 2012 at 50% of current (post the next gen release), DS would be at 170 million. I'm thinking sales will decline a lot faster if the new 3D version is meant to be a complete replacement.
@zeromous,No...I'm just done with the DS...I have a short position but am not going to try and drive the price down any more...I've put in a buy to get out when those driving the price up return.
The problem I find is that if TSE is to utilise the wisdom of crowds theory, then it should aggregate all information about a stock and reflect that in the price. Too often however, new information will come to light and the price doesn't shift.
Generally speaking, it has to be something really obvious for there to be any price movements, like Brutal Legend tanking at NPD, for example. So it's not completely broken. If it was calibrated correctly however, there would be more fluctuation in the prices.
Exacerbating this problem I think is the general lack of activity which means the time trust & auto market makers have more influence over the prices than they should for the volume they were designed for. At 75k, you only need three people to put their time trust in something to shift the price but there is no equivalent going the other way. Regular players therefore get 175k to buy anything they like and because they have to spend it, I wager they are less fussy where the money goes.
Hence a stock like this can grow this high because a lot of people see the DS doing well and think it suitable for the time trust. As it keeps going up, it makes people money, people see this and the cycle continues.
When there was a lot more trading, the effects are neglible but at current volumes it puts it out of whack. Unfortunately, unless something changes dramatically I don't think it's fixable.
Deftangel I totally agree. I'm lucky to have cultivated a broad portfolio that makes me money on down and up days and gives me the ability to have some margin on the side.
I see that I have some allies in both you and Phil, and this makes me happy to see TSE at least attempting to self-correct.
I don't know if you noticed, but I talked down the DS stock about 5k yesterday (~20%). I made money on the down and up.
I think the problem being is that the market has no input. Its fueled by hype and speculation. When ever someone is pessimistic the usual bunch of profiteering doubletalk shows up. In that sense TSE is quite a mirror of the real market! :)
The more of us that speak up and provide rational thoughts as to why this stock is overvalued, the more impact we can have on the correction of a stock. Please don't move on, beat the drumbeat of the market, don't just blindly follow!
(Oh and try to build up 1 million in margin and keep it there at all times....this is what I do, saving for a rainy day, or to ride out a correction).
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DS Lite Announced Jan 2006 ... on sale March 2006...a 2 month delay.
DSi Announced Oct 2008...on sale Nov 2008.. a one month delay
DSXL/LL Announced Oct 2009...on sale Nov 2009...a one month delay.
Given the above I don't see why a June reveal of the 3DS would result in the product not launching fairly soon after.