Currently, Nintendo is shipping out roughly 70-80K a week in Wii units to the USA and not the 100k that it should be (your 400k supply/month on the Wii is right). I am willing to concede on the DS argument for the time being.
Supply : 1.8 Million / month production for Wii, 2.5 Million / month production for NDS. IF Nintendo keep 10% of monthly production for holiday season sales, that means 1.6 Million / month Wii and 2.2 Million / month for NDS. I don't see any problem with Nintendo supplying 400K Wii / month for US, and 500 - 600K NDS / month for US (especially with the lowered weekly # of NDS in Japan) .
Can you detail more why you think the supply will not be there ? Is it because of January # ? Or any other reason ? The above mentioned production rate is based on Nintendo's financial report, so it should be accurate.
@Jesse2050, Last year, the DS hit 485k units and this is with the best selling title being Diddy Kong Racing. This year, the DS has a new color (Cobalt/Black) and some quality titles such as Professor Layton and Advance Wars to continue to get consumers into stores looking at the DS.
Also, the DS is coming off a stronger January than last year's (both as a whole and weekly).
This future in February also needs to come down in the sub 400k's. Given January releases and the seasonality of Nintendo’s portable units, there is no way this thing will break 400k in February.
@lstormy10, I really doubt there are supply issues in Feb. I mean, Nintendo produces 2.5m DS units per month now, last year production capacity was lower and still Nintendo could manage things well in Feb. so how can they mess up this year?
@starship, The biggest thing that I believe is weighing on the minds of traders is supply constraints.
Also, it should be noted that last year, there were no super large titles that were released in February to drive the sales of the Nintendo DS (the two largest releases I can remember are Diddy Kong Racing and Disney Meteos).
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Currently, Nintendo is shipping out roughly 70-80K a week in Wii units to the USA and not the 100k that it should be (your 400k supply/month on the Wii is right). I am willing to concede on the DS argument for the time being.