I am skeptical about how much sales the introduction of the SLIM will add onto the sales numbers, as the lowering of the price of the PS3 did not seem to have much of an effect, I do not think that the introduction of the SLIM will either.
Also, unlike the DS Lite, the PSP SLIM does not look drastically different from its predecessor and the features added and how the machine was tweaked I do not think is enough to entice that many more people to buy it, at least not yet. I see the PSP Slim increasing sales more in October and into the holiday season, especially after the PSP Slim Star Wars edition is released in October. I see the sales for September to be in the 17.5-19.75DKP range.
The PSP sold 151,200 units (15.12DKP) in the month of August (NPD numbers), which is about 37,800 units each week. Even with the 5 week reporting period this month, it should still be around 189,000 units sold in the month of September (18.90DKP).
In the July NPD period, the PSP sold 214K. If we assume it sells at the same rate this month, and considering that this month is a five-week period, the PSP will sell 267.5K.
Currently we are predicting the PSP to sell 209K. If we assume it sells at the rate we're predicting this month, the PSP will sell 261K.
However, these do not take into account that a PSP redesign is being released this month. Sony will likely increase PSP advertising, and some stores may decide to lower the price of old PSP's to clear out old stock more quickly. Thus, I believe this future, which is currently predicting the PSP to sell 274K this month, is undervalued.
Some anecdotal evidence of how much stock stores are getting and how quickly that stock is selling would be helpful. I don't live in the US, so I can't help here.
Wasn't it stated that the reason for the lower sales was due to supply constraints?
I believe that what I said was that the numbers don't necessarily correlate when related to market specific data, like when Canada has supply constraints for their PSP so it has lower than normal sales. Unless that was a North America wide supply issue I wouldn't expect much more than a small dip from what we're usually seeing.
On top of that Pachter is not expecting lower than usual sales, he predicted 225k sales for the PSP. I think he would know if they were having supply issues.
@Arbiter, They do not precisely correlate, but the correlation is pretty good most of the time. The numbers usually deviate with the Wii and the DS, possibly due to supply constraints and a larger demand for these Nintendo consoles in Canada. They used to release their top 10 software figures as well, but only relative numbers were given for July.
@pilias_simber, I have personally calculated the correlation between US and Canadian NPD figures for May here. April numbers also range from 6-10%, with only the Wii numbers deviating, but even then, it is not that much. There is definitely a good correlation between the two numbers.
I also calculated June's correlations: Wii-9.43%, DS-11.97%, PSP-6.38%, 360-6.8%, PS3-6.6%.
If I remember correctly, April correlation for the PSP is also at 6%. Not only are the correlations ranging in a narrow 6-percent spread for 3 months, the PSP's correlation is the most stable of the consoles.
Now I'm not saying that this correlation will still hold true this month, I even think it's rather impossible given the exceedingly low PSP numbers for Canada, but a lower than usual sales for the PSP in the US for July is a big possibility.
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I am skeptical about how much sales the introduction of the SLIM will add onto the sales numbers, as the lowering of the price of the PS3 did not seem to have much of an effect, I do not think that the introduction of the SLIM will either.
Also, unlike the DS Lite, the PSP SLIM does not look drastically different from its predecessor and the features added and how the machine was tweaked I do not think is enough to entice that many more people to buy it, at least not yet. I see the PSP Slim increasing sales more in October and into the holiday season, especially after the PSP Slim Star Wars edition is released in October. I see the sales for September to be in the 17.5-19.75DKP range.