@yajimari21, First month data of Forza series : FORZA MOTORSPORT 3 (360; 10/27/09) 175,000 (1 week) Forza Motorsport 2 (360, 05/29/07) 217,300 (1 week) FORZA MOTORSPORT (XBX, 05/03/05) 184,595 (4 weeks)
Since Forza 3 is weaker than Forza 2, the downward pressure could be caused by that fact.
The downward pressure on this stock is pretty shocking to me, especially when people should be shorting Wii and DS stock instead (if anything). I really can't see this stock doing any less than about 3-3.5m and welshbloke and others have elaborated as much as well.
I have to agree and thank you for pointing out the stock had dropped I had not noticed as I have less time to visit the site.
4 Million which I have now bumped it upto is pretty much in my opinion the absolute minimum this title could sell in its lifetime. I pretty consider all exclusives to end up as bundles in a marketing campaign and FM2 already has the pedigree so no reason to doubt.
Also as you point out GT5 has left the door open so to speak. Not all the GT5 fans I think will be willing to wait until March or even later in the US for this title and I expect them to purchase both titles. The 360 fanbase clearly has picked up a number of PS2 fans along the way especially in Europe of late.
I think the FM3 title is interesting as it is the first real product in my mind that directly challenges a big first party PS title. Certainly from what I have seen this game rocks.
Favourite review was by Inside Sim Racing. Warning this is a serious review by Sim Racers so beware.
My Second Fav review was from GiantBomb This review on the otherhand is a fun look at the game.
Do we have any reason to believe that Forza 3 should not do better (we also must consider the upcoming Gran Turismo 5 envy as a driver for sales of Forza 3)?
I have a HUNCH that MS will pack in Forza3 as Gran Turismo 5 finally hits the skids. We must also consider X360 adoption was still in its infancy when Forza 2 dropped two years ago around the PS3 launch.
Full disclosure, I've been bullish on this stock and seen it drop off the last few days. There is good opportunity here for profit (something rare outside of an IPO cycle here lately).
So far this game looks incredibly impressive but recent news on the official FM3 forum to my mind casts some serious doubts.
Che who is Turn 10's community manager has stated that FM3 will not have Night racing/Weather/Rally support. This seems to be a huge admission surely these are considered standard features (The Rally I am not that concerned with as it will have a pseudo rally function). I think FM3 will be the largest title to date for sales but this is pretty huge and I hope it proves incorrect or is fixed prior to the launch.
How do generate a Le Mans track but do not have a 24 hour cycle or weather? I am really struggling with this news. I mean why both with a Le Mans track at all, this just does not make sense to me.
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