I bailed out because I'm no longer thinking this can sell more than 2m. Wii owners have been starved of software for months and Monster Hunter is massive in Japan. I know this is a port but I honestly expected more from it.
I think the reason people are skeptical is because the game included a demo for Monster Hunter 3 (like the FF XIII demo), but failed to move nearly as much hardware or software as the other did. I still think that this stock is a great long option, but I can understand why some people dumped their stock.
I notice this is taking a bit of a shave today...reminder...the Monster Hunter at the top of the Wii Chart for Japan with only 131k sales first week is NOT Monster Hunter 3...It is a port of Monster Hunter G (and thus many Wii owners have played it on their PSP or PS2 by now I'm sure).
But that was before Monster Hunter's popularity exploded in Japan. I think the easiest console-handheld comparison would be Monster Hunter 2 (PS2) and Monster Hunter Freedom (PSP), since they were both released within a few months of one another. With the latter around 1 million LTD, the console version has sold about 57% as much as the portable (actually around 60% LTD). Monster Hunter 2G is on track for LTD sales of 4 million or more in Japan alone. Even if we assume that the console version only sells 50% as much as the portable version, you still have sales of 2 million overall, without including sales from the West. Considering how much hype will be surrounding the followup to 2G in Japan, though, I can see this selling 60% or more of the portable's total. I think this title should be at around 260-270 DKP.
Monster Hunter on consoles have always been flops in Japan. The West is the least of your problems.
LTD through the end of the first calendar year(I think)(Famitsu) PS2 Monster Hunter - 289K (20041226) PS2 Monster Hunter G - 232K (20051225) PS2 Monster Hunter 2 - 571K (20061231)
Monster Hunter, like Pokemon, is a portable franchise. Its strengths are getting together on the train or whathaveyou, for local, free play.
Am I the only one who thinks that this is still quite undervalued? Even if it flops completely in the West, this should be at 250 at the very least. Monster Hunter 2G probably will have the highest sales of the series, so a falloff is to be expected-- but 200 DKP? Really?
Since the IPO it has been a consistent growth stock. This stock is going to being a slow builder that any investor with a kinda long(er) stance on this could reap the benefits of.
It should be interesting to predict/trade this game, since it is one of the famous / big series of Capcom, and it should be interesting to predict its sales on Wii platform.
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I bailed out because I'm no longer thinking this can sell more than 2m. Wii owners have been starved of software for months and Monster Hunter is massive in Japan. I know this is a port but I honestly expected more from it.