GTA:Chinatown Wars: 74,000
Killzone 2 : 58,000
Chronicles of Riddick: Assault on Dark Athena : 57,000
Halo 3 and Halo Wars each sold somewhere between 57,000 and 74,000 units.
@oznerol, yea, I've got a small short on Halo Wars, but it is essentially betting on how high #10 will be at this point. The release list for April was pretty dismal, and looking back, April in previous years wasnt that hot either. I think I'm safe though, I've about 700k market value short @ 15.78 :)
I would have shorted the crap out of Halo Wars, but I am predicting a Chinatown Wars-type scenario where it won't make the listing and thus the payout would only be that of the lowest ranked game.
@welshbloke, I expect HW to do 12.48 or worse this month. EEDAR estimate of HW is <12 (not showing up on Top 10, so no exact figure from EEDAR PR), while VGC expectation of HW is <8.4 (not showing up on Top 20, hence no exact figure).
I think I managed around 500k in the end for Halo Wars. I am expecting it to do around 14 this month which if it does will be good news although I will not be suprised to see it come in around 13 although anything less will be dissapointing. I suspect it will not have massive legs but I am still hopefull it will plod along and also believe it to be a good candidate for bundling later in the year.
Currently I would expect Halo Wars to do 13-14 and xbox 250-275. I have not really been following the others but my gut tells me another good month for those who shorted pretty much across the board.
@welshbloke, I was expecting 310K for X360, but didn't cash out from my short position at current 28.24 DKP price point, because I was hoping that X360 is doing worse than my expectation (like the 250 you mentioned).
I noticed that you are long on Halo Wars April futures. I have some short on Halo Wars and RE5 this month (only 1-2 Million DKP each), because I believe that Halo Wars will not have good legs. My feeling about RE5 is not as strong, so less short investment for it.
How much profit you made from Halo Wars March futures ? I managed to get 300K DKP profit from HW March futures.
I certainly overestimated and will definately hurt if EEDAR prove correct. I am more inclined to go with 250 but even this will be a painfull result for me this month.
I am going to let them spin and take the loses on the chin and then remind myself why I do not normally dable in the NPD monthly gamble.
I was certainly boyed up by my unepected success with Halo Wars and seem to have gotten carried away.
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