@vGInfidel, Yes, I am hoping that Patcher is seriously off about the Wii number. If I am right, I am going to win big. If Pachter is right, I am going to lose some money (500K DKP currently, should probably go up if more people take up my sell order at higher price).
@vGInfidel, Do you still have buying power left ? If yes, I have lots of stock I am willing to sell for you at 255 DKP price point (if you willing to go higher, I am willing to set up those selling order :D).
Well I'm hoping he's right as the guy buying at 230 dkp was me so now I have 41,000 stock invested which at an average price of 235 is about 9mil. Im thinking it will be close to 3mil if not a little bit more, i think Nintendo really stockpiled and sorted out their supply problems this year as Wii has been readily available and i believe the demand is still there. So if it does hit 3mil that's a bit over 3 mil profit for me :-).
“I haven’t done the work for NPD yet, but my guess is that 360 sales were flat or up a little, PS3 sales down a little, and Wii sales up more than 100%,” said Pachter.
“That would end up around 1.2 - 1.3 million 360s, around 700,000 PS3s and around 3 million (or more) Wiis.”
Pachter went on to say that his official estimates would be released early next week.
@deftangel, Cut off limit for LTD Top 10 and LTD Top 25 since April 08 is : LTD 10 LTD 25 Since April --- 1.4413 ----- 1.3689 Since Aug ----- 1.1885 ----- 1.1323 Since Oct ----- 1.1568 ----- 1.0716
second column is increase of Dec 31 for LTD Top 10, while the third column is for LTD Top 25.
As you can see, LTD Top 10 increase is slightly bigger than Top 25. In April - Dec, Top 10 cut-off increased 44.13%, while Top 25 increase 35.89%.
In Oct - Dec, Top 10 increased 15.69%, while Top 25 only 7.17%. In other words, you don't have to increase as much as Top 10, but you do have to increase better than Top 25. If your networth since end of April didn't increase by 37%+, you would get farther and farther behind.
And you don't have to trade in futures to get those big gain. It is possible to break Top 10 just from Trading GLS. Just ask soupspup. I think his profit mostly came from GLS trading, not future trading.
No of course that's not the only way but an NPD future is probably the way to do it. I can only compare my rate of progress against the top 10 and in recent months there's been a pretty dramatic increase in the rate their network has been increasing.
So I made a reasonable assumption same is true of top 25.
@deftangel, "At any rate, in order to break top 25 I probably need to win a bigish bet against players with higher networth than me"
This statement is not true, in my case. I break into Top 25 by getting MORE profit than other player, except zukaus (who can win against him in actual profit ?)
You are now rank 33 with 25 Million Networth. It took me 1.5 month, since April 1 till May 15, to rise from rank 37 (13 Million Networth) to rank 22 (23 Million Networth). The big during that period for me is : FFCC: Ring of Fates (1.1 Million profit) Ninja Gaiden Apr 08 (1.1 Million profit) PS3 Apr 08 (1.1 Million profit)
Big lost : CC:FF7 Mar 08 (650K loss)
There are lost of other profits, but they are smaller, and not worth mentioning.
In your case, it would take longer to break Top 25 since there are more people with fast networth increase, like soupsoup. But all you have to do is creating bigger profit than other, NOT winning bet against higher networth player.
Wish you luck in your Wii Dec 08 gamble. I have small short position in it, so small it didn't show up in my public profile. So if you win, I also win (big win vs. small win).
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Yes, I am hoping that Patcher is seriously off about the Wii number. If I am right, I am going to win big. If Pachter is right, I am going to lose some money (500K DKP currently, should probably go up if more people take up my sell order at higher price).