The poor sales of PS3 compared to PS2 and PS1 are unlikely to hurt sales as much as the current projection of 4.32 million suggests.
Instead, I think we're likely to see the series go from the 1:9 and 1:8 attach rates of GT1 and GT3, and perform more like Super Mario 64, Smash Bros. Brawl or Halo 2 in comparison to console sales.
Basically, even if PS3 only sold 30 million units, this game could smash the current projection to bits.
The past Gran Turismo's have sold like crazy, I know people that picked up the PS2 just to play GT3 and GT4 and I know people that are planning to pick up a PS3 just to play GT5. Take this into consideration, no GT game in the main series has sold below 8 million copies. If that is not an indication for the success of GT5 then I don't know what is.
While it can be argued that since the PS3 will probably have a smaller user base than the PS and PS2, consider than the Xbox360 has only around 10 million consoles sold and Gears of War has sold over 4 million copies, it is possible for GT5 to do easily as well as that, considering this game will validate purchasing a PS3 as you can show your friends how good the cars look.
In the end, I think this game will be able to push 6 million copies over its lifetime, 2 million lower than the lowest the series has ever sold, which might even be a low prediction but it all depends on how well the PS3 continues to sell.
I definitely agree that this is now a strong buy now that Sony has worked things out with Immersion. The biggest thing holding people back from PS3 as a racing platform and GT5 was the lack of force feedback.
With the force feedback issue seemingly resolved with Immersion, I think the only bearish factor in GT5 is now gone. If Sony can get force feedback to work soon along with fix the other complaints like DVD upscaling, I think PS3 sales will pick up and GT5 will be another blockbuster.
I think there is an overemphasis here on a single game being a system seller. While an exclusive game certainly can have on impact on which console people buy, I think that in general there is a bit more complexity to consumers' decision making than that.
As for GT, I think it is clearly a very strong IP and is likely undervalued. However, I have serious questions about the PS3's ability to grab market share. Until I have a better feel for that I'm going to take the wait and see approach.
Gran Turismo 5 is going to be big, just like all the games in this series. The last game sold in the 8 million mark and over the lifetime of the PS3 I wouldn't be surprised to see this hit the 3 or 4 million mark.
Consider this, the Gran Turismo 4 Prologue and Gran Turismo Concept games, which you'd be hard pressed to call full games, both sold over a million copies. This series outsells Halo and at current time, this stock may be a little bit undervalued, though only time will tell.
11
Instead, I think we're likely to see the series go from the 1:9 and 1:8 attach rates of GT1 and GT3, and perform more like Super Mario 64, Smash Bros. Brawl or Halo 2 in comparison to console sales.
Basically, even if PS3 only sold 30 million units, this game could smash the current projection to bits.