How long can it take to turn out a racing game? Correct me if im wrong but they already have the basic driving mechanics, controls etc. with Prologue. All they need to do is refine these, put in extra tracks and a few extra features and then create the performance specs for the cars which is all mathematical anyway. Theres no way it should take so many years.
I agree, there is absolutely zero reason to believe Gran Turismo 5 will be comparable to previous outings in sales.
Gran Turismo, while an awesome franchise has been abandoned by casual gamers in favor of lighter racing fare. It's not even the pinnacle of simulation any more with far more open and extensible PC solutions out there for the truly hardcore.
This puts Gran Turismo back down to earth in terms of its importance to the console race. Unless Polyphony will offer something workable to casual gamers, and bring them back to Gran Turismo, I see this title doing more of the 5-7 million range this time around.
Case in point: Gran Turismo Proglogue, should have sold better if Gran Turismo was as important as the value of this stock implies.
A similar microcosm of this effect: The SSX series. not an issue of too many too fast, but still managed to go from staple, to irrelevance simply by being stale.
@Just_Ben, I believe MGS has shown much much much more legs than any PS games.. it is still selling over 50k after 3 months and it has not even got a single christmas to it also.. whereas MGS 2 and MGS 3 were launched right before christmas giving them some real extra booast..
Good games have shown lot of legs on PS3... like Motorstorm, uncharted, Resistance even games like Heavenly sword have sold well over a million on a debut of less than 100k... So i think ur statement is totally wrong... sure we don't expect bad ports to show good legs.. neither we expect medicore games to show good legs.. but if a game is truly next gen and is provided a good support it will sell a lot.
Lastly bundling a software is not a bad tactic and it also provide a little discount to the customer so i think its a win win situation..
Every person belong to some genre and there is no core audience, there is audience for RPG, there is audience for FPS, there is audience for Sports game and they will keep moving and die hards will not mind even having two consoles just to play some specific game of their genre... and the people who do not have any specific genre are surely going to keep one console and they do move based on other factors like price, look, ease of use etc..
If you are talking about GLS for this game then you maybe right. The GT games have been most popular recently in Europe, where PS3 is stronger. If GT5 does not arrive until 2010, it may not do 10 million sales if hardware sales remain below where PS2 sales were when GT3 was available.
I think you change cause and impact. Or at least it is possible. Maybe, just maybe there are not a lot of GT fans, but a lot of racer fans. The PS and PS2 where you needed to be, if you love racers, in their generations. Thats why they sold sooo good: install base. What if the install base is not there this time around? I mean we can already see that the (active*) PS3 base is pretty hard core: The sales of games peak in the first week/month very high and fall rapidly (As can seen on MGS 4 and others).
I mean why on earth should GT5 be a top seller if the core** install base is missing. You need better legs for high software sales then yet to see on any PS3 game.
True Sony is gaining ground, and starts to get where they need to be, but there still on the way. The 360 and the Wii are already there.
Yes off course, Prologue did sell well, but you have to consider that it was bundled in the EU.
My problem is that people just estimate series was successful in the past, series will be successful now. And every news is positive. My point is, you can view everything the other way around. GT5 will be successful, but not that much we see it to be, AND a good part of the sales will come, because Sony will and needs to bundle it, to drive sales further of their PS3.
*There are people seeming to use the PS3 as media center not as gaming machine. Those sold PS3 are dead for the software market
**The core audience seem to shift more towards the Wii and a little bit to the 360 than to the PS3, and that is their main problem.
@Mushashi, I don't think he remember / realize that. Asking for GT to appear on other console is the same as asking Smash Series or Pikmin series to appear in other console.
"If they really wanted to make money they would remove the exclusive aspect and get as much as they can. Exclusives are important to the console manufacturers probably than the development houses."
You do know this game is made by Sony? it is a game which can result in increased hardware sales for them, selling more consoles is more important than selling more copies of this game for Sony. Having it exclusive to their gaming systems is the only way to make sure that happens.
A delay of 2 years is not going to be good news even with an increased userbase. The primary reason is for every year they delay that is another years delay on the next GT franchise. They need to pump these games out at a reliable rate. This inability to do this certainly on the first draft games has not been good by any measure.
If they really wanted to make money they would remove the exclusive aspect and get as much as they can. Exclusives are important to the console manufacturers probably than the development houses. We seem to be still working on dominant console model when in reality this is unlikely to happen within this generation even considering any huge lead one console may have over another.
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How long can it take to turn out a racing game? Correct me if im wrong but they already have the basic driving mechanics, controls etc. with Prologue. All they need to do is refine these, put in extra tracks and a few extra features and then create the performance specs for the cars which is all mathematical anyway. Theres no way it should take so many years.