Take a look at this guys, this shows what Im talking about...its almost as if the NYT said, those TSE guys are arguing about the purchasing power of Joe Gamer
Take look at how much the average american in the lowest fifth of income spends on entertainment. It's still close to 1000$ a year. Also look at the chart below how electronics have scaled to nearly utility levels. Very interesting indeed, so much that I may post this to the ps3 stock forum.
@dazer, Ummm... you forgot to address the issue about actually getting the PS3 to appeal to those buying a system for the whole family and kids. Most people do not know what Blu-Ray is, do not have a HDTV, will go for the cheapest Blu-Ray player possible, or don't care about Blu-Ray because they are either happy with their DVDs or have looked at digital distribution.
Rather than asking "why buy a seperate blu ray player?" it seems that most households are asking "why buy a blu-ray player at all?". Sales of HD movies are incredibly low (when 300 broke a sales record, the caveat was that those numbers would be a bomb for DVD) and there is a real threat that digital distribution will catch on before blu-ray can come close to replacing DVD.
I would doubt that Sony would allow this title to be ported. I'm not sure how it could be too advanced, the Wii has already proven it can run the Havok physics engine. I'm not familiar enough with this game to judge it's limits, but I don't see why it couldn't be ported (with less bloom!).
Also, I would pause before using raw hardware numbers to predict this game. For instance, the 360 is having a tough time selling games outside of its core sports/shooter demographic. PS3 software sales look to be quite similar so far. Just because the install base will rise from people who want to play MGS4, it doesn't mean increased Little Big Planet sales.
The ps3 was meant to market for enthusiasts but that crowd is mostly people that can't afford the system overall (college kids, etc) so this is what we see. Sony trying to reach into the kid market
All in all- the PS3 will make a jump in sales in the next two years. That I have no doubt, as everyone migrates to HD.
But currently, the PS3 is the system with the most features. Why buy a blu-ray player for upwards of $200 when they can get a great system that does it all for $600? The only reason my fam owns a ps3 is because blu ray beat out HD-DVD.
LBP will have high ps3 sales depending heavily on release date. Just another excuse for the family to get the system.
I think it can be agreed upon that the largest thing that could hurt the sales of this title as of now is the market of the PS3 and the sales numbers of PS3 hardware.
If the September release date is correct, then the months leading up to September, September, and the holiday season will be crucial to this title. In the months leading up to September, this title needs the PS3 to gather a bit more steam in hardware sales and start reaching other markets than mostly just the hardcore. In September, this title would need to be advertised well and in more than the usual gaming places - there needs to be advertisement in more mainstream places. Also, launch needs to garner a good number of sales. During the holidays, this title would need the PS3 to beat out the 360 and once again start reaching other markets other than the hardcore gamer.
All of this would add up together to make for successful sales. The only question is how successful, is September the actual release date, and will these things mentioned above actually occur (the stuff I mentioned above are not predictions, just a good hypothetical set-up that would help sales for this title).
Do you think it could be ported to Wii? It would definately put this game over the top. It seems natural for that platform, but too advanced for the console.
I still am optimistic, good games create buzz and move consoles. There are already slightly less than 10 million PS3s in the world and by the time this game comes out it will be 12-15 million.
If you can forgive my sarcasm for the sake of my point: If selling a few million of an innovative party-platformer (a combination some of the highest selling game genres ever) offering unparalleled control and creativity is not going to find its audience on the PS3, I had better just call this generation over and declare the Wii the console to rule them all because the PS3 is only good for first person wank-fests, and crappy JapanStudio downloads.
400$ just ain't what it used to be. Families will buy what's hot, and in the near-future whatever is HD. Today the handyman that came to fix my window was asking about the PS3 because he was upgrading his TV. I mean what are the odds? I'm not joking here.
I would think that LBP, while an ideal family game, won't find its audience on the PS3. If someone is looking for "family entertainment", I would think they're far more likely to go with a Wii than a PS3. The Wii offers a much larger variety of family-friendly titles, plus it has a lot of positive buzz around it. Aside from GH/Rock Band (which are both multiplat) and LBP, what does the PS3 offer for families? I suppose the extensive/impressive PS2 back catalogue, but I don't see people spending $400 for that.
Agreed, we've digressed somewhat, but for the people who haven't been following from the beginning... we're trying to frame PS3 sales to this games particular audience.
Good point about content driving HD, but I do think a lot of Americans will be upgrading their sets regardless of content or television availability. Laoldar points out we'll see the impact of this in Q2-Q3 as uneducated customers buy flatpanels for "sh*ts n' giggles" with matching consoles/next gen dvd players using their rebates.
The question at the end of the day which is difficult to answer is, we know the market is there, but will people choose PS3 with games like LBP for their family entertainment?
I hope so, I look forward to future Rock Band and LBP parties at my place. You're all invited, punch n pie. Downbidders can stay at home. :)
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Take a look at this guys, this shows what Im talking about...its almost as if the NYT said, those TSE guys are arguing about the purchasing power of Joe Gamer
http://www.nytimes.com/imagepages/2008/02/10/opinion/10op.graphic.ready.html?ex=1360299600&en=9ef4be7cf82e4353&ei=5124&partner=digg&exprod=digg
Take look at how much the average american in the lowest fifth of income spends on entertainment. It's still close to 1000$ a year. Also look at the chart below how electronics have scaled to nearly utility levels. Very interesting indeed, so much that I may post this to the ps3 stock forum.