Do you really think the PS3 is on track to sell near the PS2? Last gen the PS2 had the lead over two consoles that floundered in sales, but this time the PS3 is running in third place. I think the best indicator of PS2vsPS3 sales are coming from current multiplatform titles. Last gen, the PS2 version easily outsold others, but that isn't the case this time. I think this is a strong sign that gamers who helped the PS2 win last time haven't made the switch, or they went to the competitors. Guess we'll see :)
I do agree that a good ad campaign could help, and Sony does usually have fantastic ads for first party games...however, I don't recall seeing any for this type of game. Normally they've been for games like Warhawk, Resistence, etc...will they be able to properly market a quirky non-violent game?
Well I'd like to address your question, but first I want to say you made a great point about GH3 sales. I hadn't really thought of it that way (games like GH as an indicator).
I believe the same was true of Madden games as they moved to PS2. It just has to do with install base. We've already established that while a slow start, the PS3 is performing slightly below par set by the PS2 which went on to sell quite a few units.
I think if we're predicting sales of 60 million PS3 consoles in the end, and LPB will be released in what is typically the heaviest adoption season (third christmas) in a consoles life cycle, this could do far better than you are predicting. I can see the holiday ad campaign now..that is of course if Sony doesn't screw up the whole thing!
Well, nice (friendly) debating but we'll never get based our fundamental argument: I believe LBP's potential is greater than just being a million seller, whether my reasons prove to be unfounded or not. You disagree, and I can live with that. Thanks for explaining your position.
Comparing consoles in Canadian prices will give you wonky numbers because out currency varies so much (though I enjoy the decrease in game prices now!). Domestic currency prices has no direct influence in inflation. Inflation is measured (primarily) in the cost of a standard basket of goods (or through a more complicated GDP measure).
The Saturn sold less than 10 million units and was discontinued in North America in just over 3 years. Considering the Genesi sold 30 million, it was quite the failure. While it still has its fans, there's no mistaking that it was a failure for SEGA.
I see you're still talking about "well, people might do this" when it comes to console buying. After over a year on the market (and two price cuts), I think people should be looking at what consumers ARE doing, instead of optimistically hoping their buying habits will suddenly change in Sony's favour. Though I do agree it will add to the potential sales of LBP...I would argue that the sales will be much closer to 1 million rather than 2-3 however. Casual games are simply not selling that well on the PS3. Guitar Hero 3 sales (for example) lag well behind the Wii and 360.
Why will LBP be different than established franchises (such as GH or Madden) that have seen their sales sharply drop off on the PS3?
The NES was 299$ Cdn when I bought it. Don't forget the US dollar was worth a lot more back then. It has seriously devalued over the years since 1980 in relation to gold/oil. How this fits into an inflation argument I'm not too sure, as I'm not an economist familiar with currencies.
I don't think disposable income has changed much however, but the amount people spend on electronics versus vacations, and other luxury items has clearly increased. I used music players and phones of examples of things that people who don't buy consoles would purchase. The PS3 is no different as its market has also grown astronomically since the 80s (along with music players and phones).
As for the Saturn, if you're comparing it to Sega's expectations of course it was a failure. It still had a loyal install base, and many successful exclusives. I think you may be confusing it with the SegaCD/32X and dreamcast. Those are spectacular failures. The Saturn still lasted 4 years, and has a large library of games an accessories (I know I own them all along with a huge library of quality imports). Doesn't sound like a failure to me compared to others in the industry.
I also note you didn't choose to debate the NeoGeo or 2600. Thats ok.
Again most of this has very little to do with the fact that people with HD tvs may choose the PS3 over Xbox and Wii as their home media center because of things like blu-ray and other features. I think these people will add at least a few hundred thousand lifetime sales to what we expect typically for a game like LBP. This combined with heavy marketing, and a strong platform (which the PS3 is shaping up to be) we could see 2-3 million easily, maybe more!
The NES was released at $199, same with the SNES. They were never MSRP anywhere near $300.
Also, increased spending on other electronics doesn't support your argument, it works against it. For the vast majority of consumers, their disposable income hasn't changed (inflation adjusted) for quite some time. If they're spending more on items like music players and phones, that's money that can't be spent on game consoles. The argument that the PS3 can be a home computer also ignores that the vast majority of computer users run a Windows platform, so the lack of that for the PS3 would eliminate that as a consideration for most consumers.
Oh and trying to argue with me over the spectacular failure of the Saturn isn't going to win you credibility points.
This chart is interesting and its not the first time I've seen it. I'm comparing the price of the 40GB model at 399 when I talk about source prices. I feel this is fair, as MOST successful consoles, don't take a significant price cut in the first 6-8 months of adoption. To accurately compare I think we need to accept 399$ as the PS3's natural price. Sony took an apple approach this generation (stick it to the early adopters?)
I also question the inflation calculations here. I bought the SNES for 230 USD in 1990. Yet apparently inflation has only accounted for 60$ USD in nearly 20 years. It seems a tad low, although I felt the NES which was 299-399$ in 1984 should be higher as well than the quoted 364$ adjusted price. I don't know for sure, but it certainly is awfully comparable to 400$ on a PS3.
You know when I was growing up spending 500$ on a Vic20: that was a luxury. In 2008, we spend 500$ on an ipod and a cellphone which we will throw away in 2-3 years. The market is just totally different, even if prices have stayed relatively the same. This was my main point.
Since we're talking about families buying LPB, I think there will be some families out there who use the PS3 as a cheap living room PC (instead of buying a wii), and may find interest in games like this.
Its not going to push this game into the 17 million zone (like everyone seems to think SSBB is heading on the same theory), but it will significantly impact sales such that a few million copies is within reach.
I'm not even going to bother with LawLdar. He's just being contrary and will say anything that suits that end: Like Blu-ray sales are incredibly low (by whose definition?), and ignoring PR statements like 87% of PS3 owners watch blu-ray movies (which of course doesn't mean people are buying PS3 solely for use as blu-ray players, but it IS a factor since its the best valued blu-ray player). Like the Neogeo and Atari 2600 and Saturn platforms weren't successful... Puhlease, just because they didn't finish first in their gens (wait, didn't the 2600 do that?) doesn't mean they weren't successful or worthy of comparison in any case.
"Being the cheapest Blu-Ray player really isn't a huge selling point. There's a reason that companies aren't releasing actual sales numbers for Blu-Ray players/discs...they're incredibly low."
Its quite well established that segment of PS3 owners that are not buying gaming software for the console...yet. One of the theories is that many people bought it as a blu-ray player. I can't believe that you simply dismiss this based on numbers you don't have. classic.
"Also, the PS3 is still one of the most expensive consoles ever, even when adjusting for inflation. No successful console has ever been priced as high as the PS3 (unless you could the Neo Geo, Saturn or Atari as successful)."
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Do you really think the PS3 is on track to sell near the PS2? Last gen the PS2 had the lead over two consoles that floundered in sales, but this time the PS3 is running in third place.
I think the best indicator of PS2vsPS3 sales are coming from current multiplatform titles. Last gen, the PS2 version easily outsold others, but that isn't the case this time. I think this is a strong sign that gamers who helped the PS2 win last time haven't made the switch, or they went to the competitors. Guess we'll see :)
I do agree that a good ad campaign could help, and Sony does usually have fantastic ads for first party games...however, I don't recall seeing any for this type of game. Normally they've been for games like Warhawk, Resistence, etc...will they be able to properly market a quirky non-violent game?