VGC have revised their first week Others estimate down from 274k to 175k with second week sales being 80k and in Japan third week sales are 8k. So now the total of the first 3 Japan and first 3 American with first 2 Others weeks is 740k.
So if i applied a 5x multiplyer as a rule i would arrive at these estimates.
Japan - 250k America - 1250k (Taken from NPD, first 4 days 210k, total for week est. 250k) Others - 900k
Giving a total in the region of 2.5million.
A crude estimate but i think it is a generous one and this stock should come down.
Sony Europe has announced that universally acclaimed social platformer LittleBigPlanet has seen a whopping 84,000 user-created levels uploaded since the game's release earlier this month, with a total of 27 million level play throughs logged.
Speaking in a statement issued on ThreeSpeech, the company stated, "We couldn't be happier with the initial efforts from our community members. We have even had a wedding proposal created entirely in the game!"
@vGInfidel, Wow. 15K stock is a big investment. My own short is only 3K.
I predicted a good leg for this game, so my own prediction is higher than your prediction. Shorting at 4 M price point is low risk, but shorting at 3 Million price point is high risk, so I think I will just ride out my investment, and do not add any short to it (unless it managed to reach 400 DKP again in the future).
I prefer to invest in some other stock that I deemed less risky (of course, you might think that my choice is more risky than this one, since every one have different opinion). I will let you guess which stock I am talking about from the list available in my profile, since I don't want more people to jump in (like they did for Resistance 2 and Fable 2).
I should have stated it in the original post along with the numbers. US first week sales from what i can tell were pre-sales, leaked copies of the game before it got recalled, so to get an accurate estimation you would have to add first and second week together equalling 350k.
Please bare in mind these are very crude estimations.
I think Japan will fall between the 200-250k mark at best, so a 4-5x multiplyer. Apply this to US and you get 1400-1750k, hence my estimate of 1.5million. Apply this again to Europe and you get 1100k-1375k. So a VERY crude estimate would be 2700k-3375k. I personally think that is being optimistic, and that it will eventually fall in the 2400k-2800k range.
I am significantly short on this, about 15k stock, so getting out of this one could be tough unless there is some downward pressure coming from somewhere.
@vGInfidel, With Japan's 50K opening, you predicted 250K LTD (5x first week) With US' 144K opening, you predicted 1.5 Million LTD (10x first week). With Europe's 275K opening, probable LTD is 2.5 (scaled proportionately from your US 1.5 M LTD).
Therefore, WW = 1.5 + 2.5 + 250K = 4.25 Million.
I think there is some discrepancy between your statement "the initial numbers here from do not suggest it will reach the 4.1million predicted" and my calculation. Maybe I misunderstood your sentence ?
Really this is Sony fault, they should have properly advertised the game. But i still believe that the games sales will spike after the release thx to word of mouth and not only once but a few times. This is a game that sells better after the release. At least i hope it does, i invested heavily in it.
The sad thing is that this game would have sold better on the 360 due to marketing. And if this was a wii game (mind you it would be a different game, i.e less physics, worse graphics) it would sell zillions. Still it is one of the best games i have ever played.
So a comparitively strong showing in Europe, and second week figures will be interesting, but to be honest, the initial numbers here from do not suggest it will reach the 4.1million predicted. I know with two weeks worth of data it is hard to extrapolate but Japan seems to be tailing towards the underside of the 250k mark. America i would say will not reach far past the 1.5million mark at best, 420k after 3 weeks for such a hyped game, and with such a dropoff is not a good showing in my opinion. Europe is hard to tell with only one weeks data but again only 275k first week sales do not indicate a monster that would be needed to make up for America and Japan's shortcomings.
NPD data later today showing how accurate VGC has been will be the best sign of how many this will do.
@OuterHaven, Your source is BBC News but your link is to a page on n4g.com which requires you to log in.
The BBC article is here. It's a piece about British developers. For anyone looking to save time, the LBP "announcement" basically amounts to one line: "Even before the game has hit the shops, the team are already at work on a sequel." That's it.
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Why did the # go down ? Any explanation ?