@deftangel, Looks like my Europe prediction for M&S is too high. I assumed 3 Million, using UK = 33% of Europe, while it should be using 42%. This in reinforced by the fact that France, the 2nd biggest Europe Market, only have 700K combined sales. If we assumed 400-450K Wii version sales, it means 1.5 Million for UK+France, which is about 60% - 65% of Europe. German, the 3rd market, is big, but mostly PC based. 2.5 Million for Europe should be closer to actual.
Having said that, shorting this stock is one of stupid thing I have ever done. I forgot that I shouldn't put a short when the profit margin is so low, especially against Wii games.
Well, luckily I am not too deep into this one (only 1 Million DKP short, after partial bail out today), so not big potential loss for me (of course, losing DKP still hurts :D ).
Well GoNintendo posted a PR from France where they talk about advertising the game some more for Xmas 2009. (700k combined in France by the way).
http://gonintendo.com/?p=64948
It's also easily Top 20 still in the UK so it is still selling. If your LTD estimate is correct I would see the current prediction as "attainable". I'm not sure it would sell that many but with it still charting, a possible budget release on the horizon and the Wii install base ramping up at an alarming rate, I certainly wouldn't short it.
The lack of decent 3rd party games on the Wii can't be hurting it either. It's been out a year now.
@deftangel, It would really help if you can give the URL to that Sega statement, since it is crucial for the GLS prediction. Any updated shipment figure from Sega ?
According to you, the range should be be 6.5, with maybe maximum range is 7 Million. Right now, the price is 748, about 7% higher than your maximum figure.
NPD # is around 2.1 Million. Japan is 600K, and Europe should be around 3 Million (converted from UK's 1 Million LTD # a.k.a. Diamond ELSPA award), which give us 5.7 Million total. Let's round them up to 6 Million, LTD, WW. Since Olympic is over, this game shouldn't see any significant sales increase in the future.
This is the game for players that enjoy the Olympics and finally get to see Mario and Sonic face off other than Brawl. If you like Mario and Sonic you better get this game.
MCV has learned that Mario and Sonic at the Olympic Games for Wii has now sold over a million units in the UK alone. Combined with the DS version, the game has sold 1.35 million units.
@JoshuaJSlone, Thanks for reminding me about analyzing Japan.
To go into more detail about Japan market & data : Wii version, released on Nov 22, 2007. DS version, released on Jan 17, 2008.
On Feb 17, 2008, one month after DS version release, Wii # is 510,465, and DS # is 221,540. On Jun 23, 2008, the cut off date for Famitsu Top 100 H1 2008, Wii # is 561,003, and DS # is 325,647. Means the delta is : 50,538 for Wii version and 104,107 for DS Version.
Of course, above comparison might not be good, since DS version is only one month old by Feb 17, while Wii version is 3 month by Feb 17.
Difference analysis can be done using 3 months after launch : From Feb 18 (3 months after launch) to Jun 23 (18 weeks), weekly rate is 2.8K / week for Wii From Apr 13 (3 months after launch) to Jun 23 (10 weeks), weekly rate is 3.2K / week for DS.
I agree with Joshua's statement, that DS vs Wii version is about 50:50 in Q2 2008.
This means, we should use 45:55 instead of 40:60 to estimate the DS vs Wii share. Using previous analysis, 45:55 bring us to 4.05 Million for DS, and 4.95 Million to Wii (for condition as of NOW). To calculate GLS, if we think that Olympic (August 8, 2008) will bring another 10% - 20% sales to this game, then GLS should be 4.86 for DS and 5.9 for Wii (I use 20% increase).
Which mean : - correct GLS price of Wii version - DS version is underpriced (3.28 Million vs. 4.86 Million), or translated : 48% profit Margin for this.
I am going to invest more in this stock. 4 Million is still far away.
@apujanata, Of course this isn't necessarily indicative of what's going on across all regions, but since there's plenty of available Japanese data we can at least look at the split there.
From the mid-year Famitsu Top 100, the split between them was 37% DS, 63% Wii. The Wii version had a pretty big advantage in launching two months sooner and being able to benefit from holiday sales at the end of last year. However, what little we can tell of Q2 2008 sales looks pretty similar between them, so if that holds DS might take a few more of those percent.
@apujanata, I think your comments have merit. I also think this game is more popular on Wii than on DS than other Wii vs DS games are. One reason is the controls, especially given the nature of the game. I think it would be much more fun on Wii. Also the DS version released in early 08, while the Wii game got the hype from releasing in late 07.
So I don't know what to make of it all. Maybe I see a slightly higher ratio in favor of the Wii in comparison to the DS version. I'm also kicking myself for not investing in them more before posting this news, but I was just so hesitant.
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Looks like my Europe prediction for M&S is too high. I assumed 3 Million, using UK = 33% of Europe, while it should be using 42%. This in reinforced by the fact that France, the 2nd biggest Europe Market, only have 700K combined sales. If we assumed 400-450K Wii version sales, it means 1.5 Million for UK+France, which is about 60% - 65% of Europe. German, the 3rd market, is big, but mostly PC based. 2.5 Million for Europe should be closer to actual.
Having said that, shorting this stock is one of stupid thing I have ever done. I forgot that I shouldn't put a short when the profit margin is so low, especially against Wii games.
Well, luckily I am not too deep into this one (only 1 Million DKP short, after partial bail out today), so not big potential loss for me (of course, losing DKP still hurts :D ).