@feelmyring, I would just like to point out that the GameStop list of bestsellers does include Mario Party DS as of this week. I doubt those buying the game will care a whole ton about any wifi capabilities because if they did, then they would have probably also read the reviews (which apparently those that buy the title don't very much).
@lstormy10, I am wondering why I was downbidded for this comment. If I mixed up some facts and that is why, then I would like to know so that I will know for future reference.
@apujanata, I don't remember what my position in MP8 was, but I doubt I was short it. MP8 was one of the few viable, safe bets for the Wii at the time it came out, and MP games always sell well on consoles. The crux of my point is that I don't think the sales for MP console games will translate into MP handheld sales. As far as I'm concerned, MP8 has little to no bearing on MPDS.
About Mario Party 8. In June, people think it will sell only 38DKP, (maximum ever) . Reality = 42 DKP. Lost 4 DKP (10%) In July, people think it will sell only 13.85 DKP (near release of July figure), while actual # is 17.72 DKP. Lost 4 DKP (25%).
If you shorted Mario Party 8 near NPD release, you would have lost 10% to 25%.
What was your position on MP8 during June and July period ? If you are correct at that time, you might also be correct this time. But if you position yourself incorrectly before, you may also position yourself incorrectly this time.
BTW, since I am newbie (only joined Dec 07), I don't have any history with MP8.
@lstormy10, I know all the numbers, and I know all the relevant facts, I just draw a totally different conclusion than you do from them.
Two more points: the game isn't on Gamestop.com's list of DS bestsellers (at least it wasn't for me), and there's no wifi, which I think will keep away older users.
@feelmyring, Both the DS and the Wii have an install base that has a number of different age groups represented. Also, may I remind you that the number of people who own a DS is a lot greater than the number of people who own a Wii as of now? A good number of people in the target audience probably do not have MP8 for the Wii already and would rather pay a lower price for a DS version that includes much of the same things. Also, about your thoughts on 4 players being able to play off of 1 DS game card: this has never killed sales of any DS game in the past and I do not believe that it will kill sales of this DS game. (Thanks for the compliment about the points that I made.)
@apujanata, I knew that it was not you that had the limit of 35DKP. I was simply agreeing with you (the tone of my first sentence was not conveyed properly and caused the confusion - it would have been better conveyed in spoken word instead of written word, if you know what I mean). I also do not see it likely for this title to hit over 50DKP.
Hey, thanks for bringing the price of MPDS back to below 35 DKP. I will keep on buying this game, and you will keep on shorting it. We will see who is right very soon :D.
I was wrong regarding mass effect on Nov NPD, so I might also be wrong in MKDS Dec.
One retailer feedback (that have numbers) for sales on Week 12/15 - 12/22 (one week sales only): DS H/W = 98 Mario Party = 48 (sold out) NSMB = (sold out) Mario Kart (sold out) Zelda PH (sold out) Lots of game sold out. A few game may reach 300K+ in December NPD, many games will reach 100K.
@lstormy10, You make good points about Mario Party 8, but I don't think MP8 will correlate with MPDS. Its a different user base, mostly (the Wii has an older install base), the specialty stores that I survey aren't pushing it in the same way they are other DS games (more the "classics", NSMB, Mario Kart, etc), and I think that the 4 players off of 1 card is going to kill sales. Party games may work on DS, but I don't think that a rehash of a game that a lot of kids (the target audience) already have on Wii is going to sell well. This future can go as high as it wants to, I'll be betting a lot of money that it comes in under 35DKP.
The one that have 35DKP limit is feelmyring, not me. My own limit is 45 - 50 DKP. My own reasoning for higher than 35DKP limit is the same as the one you mentioned.
The reason why it may not cross over 50 DKP is because historically, no game on DS has ever gone above 500K in Dec. Mario Kart only get 450K- in Dec 06, while New Super Mario Bros (released May 06) only got 450K- in Dec 07. Yoshi Island 2, release Nov 06, only got 400K in Dec 07.
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I would just like to point out that the GameStop list of bestsellers does include Mario Party DS as of this week. I doubt those buying the game will care a whole ton about any wifi capabilities because if they did, then they would have probably also read the reviews (which apparently those that buy the title don't very much).