@Mushashi, For COD6 to sell 5 Million, is a little bit on the "too high" zone of prediction. It is definitely possible, but not probable. 4 Million is definitely probable.
I think Reggie is too optimistic to expect NSMB Wii to sell better than Modern Warfare X360 in their first 3 month on the market, especially if he is talking about US market, which is what he should be talking about, since he is president of Nintendo of AMERICA.
On the other hand, if Reggie is talking about worldwide, then the scenario is almost assured, since MW is only strong on Europe and weak on Japan, while NSBMW is strong on both Europe and Japan, especially if the sales follows NSMB DS, and not SMG.
Don't forget NSMB has done very well on DS, and is not comparable in terms of accessibility (a deal breaker in the 10+ million zone) to Mario Galaxy. NSMB will outsell Galaxy lifetime I think.
I think MW2 will outsell NSMB if this holiday season is the measure. If we go on to then say lifetime sales then I think MW2 will probably peak 9 million, probably between 8 and 9 if I am honest. This leaves the door open for NSMB to take the lifetime sales award.
@DrMarioKart,Well frist off, the bet was that New Super Mario Bros would outsell MW2 from now until January (not lifetime).
Let's cmopare: up to now the origional MW on 360 has sold what, between 6-7 million copies. Mario Gallaxy has sold 9 million units up till now. Fairly even numbers all things considered. While all Nintendo games have a long sale tail I have little doubt the 360 version of MW 2 will beat NSMB Wii.
I may be wrong, but then again isn't that why we are all here, to have a little fun predicting some sales?
@FoxHoundADAM, Doesnt even have a chance. You'd have to combine Modern Warfare 1+2 across both platforms to even stand in the same room as the top first party sellers on Wii and DS.
It still wont sell to 1:5 (pessimistic) or 1:4(optimistic) X360 owners. Best estimate right now is that MW2 will sell to 1 in 7 Xbox 360 owners by the time this generation is over (10 million).
It will need better than 1:7 adoption rates to beat Super Mario Wii on a platform with nearly double the installed base by end of generation.
Maybe Reggie didn't see the previous sales for the origional Modern Warfare, but there is every indication that MW2 will be the biggest ever video game launch ever. That would also be the single largest MEDIA sale ever as well.
I have no doubt that the New Super Mario Bros Wii will sell VERY well (bad/misleading title and all) but MW2 could very well be the best selling title of this generation.
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For COD6 to sell 5 Million, is a little bit on the "too high" zone of prediction. It is definitely possible, but not probable. 4 Million is definitely probable.
I think Reggie is too optimistic to expect NSMB Wii to sell better than Modern Warfare X360 in their first 3 month on the market, especially if he is talking about US market, which is what he should be talking about, since he is president of Nintendo of AMERICA.
On the other hand, if Reggie is talking about worldwide, then the scenario is almost assured, since MW is only strong on Europe and weak on Japan, while NSBMW is strong on both Europe and Japan, especially if the sales follows NSMB DS, and not SMG.