I don't think so simply because of the stated objectives Nintendo is after with the Wii. Mario is a more hardcore type game while the currently packaged game, Wii Sports, is the perfect marketing tool to cause word of mouth advertising which is the likely cause of the high demand for the system, you go over to your friends house, play the game, fall in love with the system, buy it.
I do suspect they will eventually release a Wii Sports 2 and package that with the game.
Anyone else think this will eventually be packed with the Wii? I mean, Mario appeals to everyone, and as long as they don't make the game too complicated (I'm thinking SMW complicated not Mario 64 complicated), we could really see the "expanded market" eating this up. And of course, Nintendo has a history of packaging Mario with the system, and using it to sell the system.
"This is the Mario you've been waiting for. We're at E3, we're months from the final review, and we can tell you with absolutely no hesitation that Super Mario Galaxy is the real deal, and that any self-respecting Nintendo fan will buy this game on day one, beat it by day two, and continue a daily ritual of replaying it over and over starting day three. During an E3 gameplay session with Nintendo of America today we had a chance to sit down with a few of the Big N's hottest titles, and two of them hooked us so much we needed to return tonight for more. Metroid was one of them, and Mario Galaxy was the other. Read on to find out why."
Hardcore was not quite the word I was looking for. NSMB and Galaxy are more "gamer" games I guess you could say -games that have the greatest appeal to those that game consistently and have been for years.
I'm not sure I'd agree that NSMB is a "hardcore" game. It's not difficult by any means and I would think that it appeals across a very broad set of demographics.
I was using more as a comparison that a game that appeals more to more hardcore-type gamers can get high sells even when a significant number of the people that own the videogame system are more mainstream. I was negating the fact that the significant number of casual/mainstream gamers in the Wii owner population will hurt the sells of this game.
I also do agree that this game is to predict and that Super Mario 64 would be the best comparison overall.
I don't think that the DS game is a great comparison...that was a classic-style 2D platformer, compared with a 3D space-based platformer.
The best comparison is probably with Mario 64, which sold almost 12 million. However, I have my doubts about this stock. Console platformer Mario games really jump around the board when it comes to sales and I would think that this will be a very hard stock to predict. That being said, the price is incredibly high right now and I think it's a poor play for traders to keep their money tied up in this stock when games closer to release will move a lot faster (and you'll be able to afford more shares).
It is not completely accurate to compare the sells of this to that of a Super Mario on the GameCube, but to instead use a variety of selling numbers for the past few Super Mario games such as the recent one on the DS. Even though the New Super Mario Bros. game is a bit different type of a Super Mario game than Super Mario Galaxy, if you look at the numbers it sold on a game system that has a similar diversified audience as the Wii will most likely have, then a Mario game more directed towards more hardcore gamers can still thrive on a console with a wider audience and sell well. Not to mention the fact that Super Mario Sunshine was a game that was not as highly rated at the time as like when Super Mario 64 came out, so Galaxy being a more highly thought of title than Sunshine already, would be a better seller than Sunshine. Also, the more mainstream audience the Wii is going after is composed of many people who know who Mario is (since so many people do) or even have experience some of the Mario games in their past. This makes the mainstream audience for the Wii more willing to buy a more "gamer" game with Mario in it - leading to higher sells.
Keep in mind that many people buying Wiis may be non-gamers who aren't all that interested in "gamer" games and others may be actual gamers that aren't Mario fans that were convinced to buy a Wii for other reasons (controller, Virtual Console etc.). Comparing the attach rate of a Mario game on a console prodominantly purchased by Nintendo fans with a Mario game on a console that's supposed to appeal to basically everyone in soceity isn't very accurate.
Just a question but if Super Mario Sunshine sold 5.89 million copies on a system with only about 20 million total consoles sold, wouldn't that put this games sales much higher on a console thats predicted to sell 80 million? If 29.45% gamecube owners bought this game and the same is said for the Wii game (Though the wii game has a lot more hype pushing it), this game could sell 23.56 million copies... Plus I'm pretty sure this game has a lot more positive hype than Sunshine did...
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I don't think so simply because of the stated objectives Nintendo is after with the Wii. Mario is a more hardcore type game while the currently packaged game, Wii Sports, is the perfect marketing tool to cause word of mouth advertising which is the likely cause of the high demand for the system, you go over to your friends house, play the game, fall in love with the system, buy it.
I do suspect they will eventually release a Wii Sports 2 and package that with the game.