@Just_Ben, Honestly, I have no idea. I don't generally trade things that I can't objectively look at. And try as I might, I can't objectively look at a core Mario game. I can't separate the 8 year old away from my predictions. "It'll sell 50 million!" "It's only one month, 8-year-old-Me." "Doesn't matter! It's Mario!"
BUT, that being said, let's check it out, using my friend and VGC's, Fuzzy Math.
I would say 1/3rd of people buying a Wii will buy SMG (conservative estimate). I fully expect DEC Wii to be 1.75mln or higher (981k NOV sales + 600k "shock and awe" from last week + 250k-ish extra week sales), so that's about 575k (1,750,000 Wiis x 1/3rd).
Based on last month's sales (obviously not a good example, since it was release month), there was an over 100% attach rate (1,123,070 SMG/981,000 Wii). That's just silly. But, look at the total of SMG sold in NOV vs Wii's sold in America (that we know of from NPD Data March 2007-Nov 2007). There were 4,169,000 Wii's sold in the US during that time. Call it 8.5mln total Wii's sold, from launch to today, in the US (I think that's a fair extrapolation, based on the constant sellouts, and the Nintendo declaration from Jan that they'd sold 3.2mln Wii's in the US). So, based on my conservative attach rate of 1/3rd of Wii's having SMG, that's 2,805,000 copies of SMG that should be sold during Nov and Dec, in the US. It sold 1,123,070 last month. 2,805,000-1,123,070=1,681,930
So if I had to make a prediction, I'd say 168.19 DKP, I guess. That being said, I can see your point, but I could also see it going nuts and selling like 2mln copies.
I know this is very convoluted logic, taking a number of things for granted, and assuming a lot.
It's not at all unusual for November releases to sell more copies in December. I'm not sure why to think SMG would be one that doesn't. I thought Mario games were particularly strong around the holidays.
To pick something related in series/genre/publisher/scheduling, last year Yoshi's Island DS released on November 13. December sales were nearly triple November sales.
@feelmyring,For a start there isn't enough wii's in the shops and that will affect all wii games including galaxy. VGC right now are unreliable as Christmas is very unpredictable but usually get wii game right. Their estimates show galaxy sold 470,000 (47dkp). With that Id say this future is overpriced. I know their are wii shortages and Nintendo might supplie them in the end of December. It will help galaxy's sales but it wont reach the current price of 131dkp.
Right lets say VGC were 50% off it would have sold 70dkp and that's still overpricing it. for the last remaining weeks will depend on nintendo. If they supplie the console it might go (from 15th) 200,000per week.If they don't 180,000 130,000 100,000.
@JoshuaJSlone, Ignoring the installed user base, there are tons of people picking up Wii's as gifts, and what better accompanying gift to a Wii than the newest game starring the character that made Nintendo what it is?
@ItachiItachi, Two differences between the Halo 3 situation and the SMG situation.
1) Halo 3's second month wasn't December, by far the biggest sales month of the year. 2) That Halo 3's first month was so huge necessarily hurt its legs; it had less room to grow. About half of the then-X360-userbase bought Halo 3 in the first month. However, only about 20% of the Wii userbase bought Galaxy in its first month, so there are more of them left to pick it up in December. I did.
@Just_Ben, I would say overpriced, even with the extra time and x-mas I don't think the salea will stay up. even Halo 3 which sold over 3 million in its first month but didn't break 500,000 the second month.
Anyone might share thoughts on the December future?
We have 1.1 Million for the first 3 weeks of the game in November. Nintendo said, first week is 500k. So the next 2 (including black Friday) where 600k. If i would have to guess they where 400k and 200k.
December is 5 weeks. Any thoughts? Overpriced, under priced currently?
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Honestly, I have no idea. I don't generally trade things that I can't objectively look at. And try as I might, I can't objectively look at a core Mario game. I can't separate the 8 year old away from my predictions. "It'll sell 50 million!" "It's only one month, 8-year-old-Me." "Doesn't matter! It's Mario!"
BUT, that being said, let's check it out, using my friend and VGC's, Fuzzy Math.
I would say 1/3rd of people buying a Wii will buy SMG (conservative estimate). I fully expect DEC Wii to be 1.75mln or higher (981k NOV sales + 600k "shock and awe" from last week + 250k-ish extra week sales), so that's about 575k (1,750,000 Wiis x 1/3rd).
Based on last month's sales (obviously not a good example, since it was release month), there was an over 100% attach rate (1,123,070 SMG/981,000 Wii). That's just silly. But, look at the total of SMG sold in NOV vs Wii's sold in America (that we know of from NPD Data March 2007-Nov 2007). There were 4,169,000 Wii's sold in the US during that time. Call it 8.5mln total Wii's sold, from launch to today, in the US (I think that's a fair extrapolation, based on the constant sellouts, and the Nintendo declaration from Jan that they'd sold 3.2mln Wii's in the US). So, based on my conservative attach rate of 1/3rd of Wii's having SMG, that's 2,805,000 copies of SMG that should be sold during Nov and Dec, in the US. It sold 1,123,070 last month. 2,805,000-1,123,070=1,681,930
So if I had to make a prediction, I'd say 168.19 DKP, I guess. That being said, I can see your point, but I could also see it going nuts and selling like 2mln copies.
I know this is very convoluted logic, taking a number of things for granted, and assuming a lot.