@charron, hmm is the stock down due to this news? I guess if we assume the first week will be the biggest week, sales will be less than 1.5 million for November; however, we do have Black Friday shopping to consider. I guess 1.65 million is a pretty good forecast.
This price is insane, the Wii has a horrible software attachment rate. With this being the case Mario Galaxy will only sell around 5-7 Million, 16 Million. Yes Mario games sell in huge numbers, however all previous games have been on consoles with higher software attachment rates. With the Wii having multiple games that are predicting 13+ Million sales, the low software attachment rate would have to change drastically for these predictions to come true.
Well I am the only one writing down such numbers. I think a lot of people are afraid to share their predictions, because everyone can see if you were wrong afterwards. But just for the Record: Mario 3d Plattformer are more popular in the US than Japan. Mario Galaxy will sell, a truckload. It will most likely come near to Halo 3 in the US in the end and beat it WW. It will sell, its just not that first week headed. It will have a decent first week, but it will not fall down. It will most likely hovering around the Top 20 in the US for a year if not longer (Depending on what releases are in that week).
@Just_Ben, I think that is some of the best advice thus far on Mario numbers. Seems like a lot of people are getting caught up in the idea that Mario in the US is as popular as he is in Japan. Popularity and recognition are two different things and a game getting good ratings doesn't mean it translates into good sales. Look at Metroid Prime 3; great ratings with one of the most innovative control schemes for the Wii to date and it heavily underperformed from the ball of hype it was whipped up from.
It is just too optimistic to think that any game will score 1.8 - 2 million copies sold in a month that is only half holiday inspired frenzy and the other half preparation for the busiest food holiday in the United States. Especially on a system that is selling lots of varied games and not just selling a lot of one particular game.
Does anyone think the NPD losing Toys R Us is going to have an effect on the october number? Specially with that deal where you got a free 25$ gift certificate with a pre-order at TRU, I can see SMG selling more than usual at TRU.
Of course this will probably not going to have a big effect, but you never know.
According to Gamerankings.com, Super Mario Galaxy now has the distinction of having the highest average review score of any game, finally dethroning Ocarina of Time.
With 31 reviews, SMG has a rating of 97.9 compared with 97.5 for OoT with 30 reviews.
For comparison, SMG has a 98 on Metacritic.com but OoT has a 99.
In its thumb-arousing pitch-perfect blend of old school game values and brand new, modern gameplay mechanics, Super Mario Galaxy re-teaches some important lessons that a lot of us have forgotten in our thirsty pursuit for polygons and ever more detailed textures.
I think that Japan's numbers simply reflect their trend of moving away from consoles and more towards handhelds. Japan's Mario platformer sales are always way below the US...except for NSMB on the DS. While their sales numbers are disappointing, I would hesitate before using them as a guide for US sales.
It's hard to say what'll happen with this future (so I don't have a huge position in it). I know that Nintendo is sending out a ton of copies, so the product should be available if people want it.
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