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Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360)
Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1
Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1
VGchartz - November 8, 2008
Submitted by OuterHaven (570) at 5:19PM PST on November 8, 2008
According to early retailer reports, and user polls, Gears of War 2 is shaping up to be one of the biggest Xbox 360 titles to date.Using the aforementioned data, Gears of War 2 looks to have debuted to midnight and Friday sales of 1,400,000 units in North America, and 700,000 units in 'Others' territories. This would be roughly 20% lower, by comparison, to Halo 3's massive debut, which wound up with 3.8 million units sold it's first week on the market.
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1vGInfidel posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 2:39PM PST on November 11, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@apujanata,
Perhaps we should not have had this conversation so publicly and let the price go up to leave us better short oppurtunities and more profit :-).[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 150 ]bids
2apujanata posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 5:39PM PST on November 10, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@soupsoup,
Hmm. Someone have high confidence in my 2.4 Million worst case prediction and drive down the price accordingly. :D
About that 30 upbids, I believe that some people (like me) didn't upbid it because we believe that VGC # are true/accurate (in fact, lots of people think VGC # are inaccurate). Possible reasons for upbids :
- signify importance of # (even though it could be inaccurate)
- to get bidding bonus (since most people would upbid articles with sales #).
- to made people notice it, and see the discussion within.
- to thanks VGC that because of their article, people are willing to buy big amount of this future at high price. I managed to invest 700K DKP at 295+ DKP price point, which I think wouldn't have happened without VGC help. If my prediction (instead of VGC's) are correct, I must remember to thank VGC for it.
So, what is up with VGC's Ninja Gaiden 2 ?[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1soupsoup posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 4:48PM PST on November 10, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@welshbloke,
I'm glad you corrected yourself! I was starting to doubt my own prediction.
I agree that the leaderboards might not be too helpful this early, especially in comparison to the leaderboards of the first game. Just this morning I read an interview with someone from Epic who was complaining about rentals and second hand sales meaning that more than twice as many people played Gears as bought it new. That would definitely affect the ratio of Live players to sales quite a bit, but is obviously less of a factor with new games. And like you said, there are the people who want to play single player first, and those who bought it just to add to their pile of unplayed games. (Okay, I'm not being entirely serious with that last one. But you know these people are out there, because every other week they get together on forums across the internet and complain about how horrible it is to have so many games.)
About the article - 30 upbids so far and counting. Seems like a lot of people trust VGC. If any of you believers are reading this, I'd be grateful if you could trust them on Ninja Gaiden 2 ;)[ Guru ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 237 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 3:41PM PST on November 10, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@welshbloke,
So, do you still think that 3 Million for Nov NPD is achievable ?[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1welshbloke posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 2:59PM PST on November 10, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@welshbloke,
Being a muppet I just realised that I am not talking NPD but global.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 60 ]bids
1welshbloke posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 10:36AM PST on November 10, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1Leaderboards are not really going to help here. The game is to new. Yes this is a big multiplayer title but it is also a single player title and most will want to experience that before venturing online.
They may never revisit it but it will provide the all important training and understanding for the online game.
Unlike MGS4, GOW1 has sown the seeds on this platform already and GOW2 with a larger install base and largely top end reviews will do very well and I am sure it will make the 3 million copies predicted by us currently for the NPD. As for its pre-sales unless Microsoft boast about we only have VGC predictions. I am not a fan of the VGC early predictions especially as they rarely are backed up by a second party.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 60 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 9:55AM PST on November 10, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@vGInfidel,
I put a small barrier below yours. :)
I have invested small money (1.5 Million DKP) shorting this one, since I am quite confident that I am going to win big on this one. My worst case scenario is 2.4 Million for Nov NPD, and my target price is 2.0 Million.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
2vGInfidel posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 9:24AM PST on November 10, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@apujanata,
Well i can clarify that they are worldwide as i am on them :-) (im not very high though, i loved GoW1 online (20,000+ kills) but i absolutely hate this one for matchmaking).
I find it laudable that mrstickball thinks that there could be over 3million in 2 days, that would mean only about 30% of people have gone online with it. Does he really think that 2million people brought this game for 10hours of single player? (Horde would be rubbish on 4 player split screen).
The number for GoW on 360 is under 5 million i believe, around the 4.7 mark. The claims of over 5 million are normally including the PC version, i think VGC number is plain wrong (suprise, suprise). So if we take 4.7/2.6 = as a rough ratio, and apply this to the 530k on GoW2 Execution leaderboards you get just under a million.
Now its probably unfair to apply this ratio quite so low because games get passed between friends and more people would have played more gametypes on GoW1 so the spread between them is less. But even being generous i should think that the figure for GoW2 is less than 1.5million, and im fairly confident in saying that. How sales will go between now and the end of the month is the thing holding me back on going massively short on the future, ive set a 1million barrier at 310dkp price point though.[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 150 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 8:48AM PST on November 10, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@vGInfidel,
It should be interesting to compare GoW leaderboards with Halo 3 leaderboards ? Is there a centralized (official) H3 leaderboards ? I googled it, but didn't see any bungie official leaderboards.
Comparing GoW2 leaderboards with GoW leaderboards, currently GoW have 2.6 Million players, which is about 50% of VGC's # (5.29 Million). Please take VGC's # with a pinch of salt.
I agree with you that first week sales are probably 1.5 Million. (3 x 500K player). The only question (for me) is whether that 1.5 Million is US only (like VGC claimed) or WW (like what you suggested).[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
2apujanata posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 7:34AM PST on November 10, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@vGInfidel,
Thanks for the leaderboards link. Is the leaderboards WW, or US only ? It is probably WW, but I am not sure.
If what you predicted (1.5 Million first week WW, probably 1 Million first week US only), the VGC really goes overboard with it's estimate.
Interesting note from article's comment, with interesting parts bolded :
mrstickball (note: mrstickball is the author of the article) says:
Dmeister - Yes, these are ioi-approved numbers.
I've argued since yesterday that it sold around 1.4m on Day-1. ioi's first batch of pre-elim numbers put it right around that (1.2-1.4m), but the next few batches including Europe put it around 2.2 or even 2.3m on the first day. However, we went a little bit more conservative with 2.1m.
Truth be told, it could wind up with 3.0m in 2 days, but we're trying to lower expectations so it isn't another MGS4.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
2vGInfidel posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 6:43AM PST on November 10, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@apujanata,
Heres the link to
Gears of War 2 Leaderboards
Now, 3 days after release you will see a little over 500,000 players on both Warzone and Execution as well as about 200,000 on each of the other gametypes. Now a VERY large majority of these will not be individual players. Alot will be the same players who have played different gametypes.
The best indicator is to look at Execution and Warzone as at least 90% of people who have played online would have played one of these gametypes. Now combined that adds up to a million, and the true number of individual players is probably much lower than that, i would estimate in the 700k region or below. Leaving a large margin for error i would assume that no more than 1million individual players would have played matches online. Now considering VGC is claiming about 2.5million sales by now (Day 3), for an online focused game to only have a maximum of 40% of playeres go online when it can be assumed that at about half of 360 owners have Live anyway means it just doesnt add up. For those without Live this game can be completed in a rental easily so theres really no need to buy it.
Also the "user polls" mentioned as a source as you suggested also alarmed me when i first read it.
Overall, given the evidence i think this is just another case of VGC throwing out wildly over the top numbers based on little evidence to create a story and get a few more hits.
First week sales i would estimate are at about 1.5million, maybe lower.[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 150 ]bids
1apujanata posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 4:32AM PST on November 9, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1I missed this article, so didn't comment on it earlier, and didn't change my investment strategy.
I don't like this part "and user polls" of the VGC article text. I don't understand why user polls have to be taken into account when determining first day / week # ?
@vGInfidel,
Do you have link to leaderboards for those who don't have X360 (like me) ? Screen capture should be sufficient. Is the leaderboard WW, or region specific ?
Is it possible that most of those who purchased GoW2 hadn't gone online yet (still finishing the offline part of the game) ? Since I didn't play GoW nor GoW2, my question might seem silly.
LBP should have longer legs compared to GoW2. I hadn't done any analysis on their GLS, but I am short on both of them (LBP more than GoW2).[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
2OuterHaven posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 6:54PM PST on November 8, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@OuterHaven,
U have to give the game credit, (hype, marketing etc.) This and fable 2 (already long gone) are really the only games that will be snapped up come Christmas. Gears has no real competition hence the massive sales. VGC could be wrong, but i don't think its off by too much, Gears is MS new Halo. This game might even cannibalize L4D sales.Without Gears though for 360 this Christmas, i don't know where it would be.[ Guru ] [ Level 17 ] [ Rank: 570 ]bids
2Jlmadyson posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 6:39PM PST on November 8, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@OuterHaven,
You can't really compare it to LBP. From early reports it doesn't look like it's going to be a massive software mover. As for the other question because people may not actually be online.[ Veteran ] [ Level 7 ] [ Rank: 1497 ]bids
2vGInfidel posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 5:54PM PST on November 8, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@OuterHaven,
To put this number in to somewhat of a context outside the 360 scale, LittleBigPlanet's sales in the US as reported by VGChartz (same source) so far which includes leaked copies and the first week since launch i believe, has figures of 350k. That is a HUGE difference between 350k and estimated 2000k first week sales. I know there is an infinite amount of variables such as legs, hype etc. but i still think this difference is too large, either VGC data is wrong (quite possible) or we need to re-evaluate our GLS of these two stocks (also quite possible). Should GoW2 go up? LBP down?[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 150 ]bids
1vGInfidel posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 5:33PM PST on November 8, 2008. RE: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1@OuterHaven,
Why then do the leaderboards suggest that well under a million people have played games online. I mean the highest number of entries into any of the leaderboards is about 300,000; if sales are as they say (2.1million), i would expect FAR higher numbers of people on the leaderboards.[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 150 ]bids
39OuterHaven posted on Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) at 5:19PM PST on November 8, 2008. Article: Gears 2 Monster debut: 2,100,000 Units Day 1According to early retailer reports, and user polls, Gears of War 2 is shaping up to be one of the biggest Xbox 360 titles to date.Using the aforementioned data, Gears of War 2 looks to have debuted to midnight and Friday sales of 1,400,000 units in North America, and 700,000 units in 'Others' territories. This would be roughly 20% lower, by comparison, to Halo 3's massive debut, which wound up with 3.8 million units sold it's first week on the market.[ Guru ] [ Level 17 ] [ Rank: 570 ]
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I don't really mind, since I am out of short margin anyway, and I don't like letting my short margin go into red too deeply. Even if the market didn't react to our discussion, I wouldn't have any spare money to do something about it. I would have some money after Oct NPD cashout, but I am pretty confident that we would still have significant short opportunity elsewhere.
I don't mind sacrificing a little bit of potential profit for getting better knowledge, which should enable me to make better prediction in the future.
Even this stock could still bounce back to 300 DKP level, because not everyone will believe analysis of other people.