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PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3)
US PS3 software sales as of Apr 09
US PS3 software sales as of Apr 09
GamaSutra - June 26, 2009
Submitted by deftangel (291) at 6:46AM PST on June 26, 2009
Motorstorm: Pacific Rift < 250k : Killzone 2, Resistance 2 & GT5: Prologue - 250k-500k : LittleBigPlanet 750k - 1000k : GTA:IV PS3 - 1.7m : MGS4 - 1.1m
I've listed only active stocks, these are US only and *do not include bundles* . However, the weakness in PS3 software is pretty clear. More through the link.
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2Mushashi posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 3:48PM PST on June 30, 2009. RE: US PS3 software sales as of Apr 09@deftangel,
Is that not more because of lack of active members with available DKP to move prices or newer members are not confident in the data to invest based on this information? If a GLS/future is incorrectly priced,then it would be reasonable to assume that members would actively move the price to gain the profit,which is how markets are supposed to work to correctly price.
As for this data,your assuming US sales make up the greatest portion for PS3 and also that these games have minimal bundle sales and that they have stopped selling which are all factors affecting GLS.
Such assumptions are potentially wrong which may be why the price does not move much.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 5 ]bids
1deftangel posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 3:10PM PST on June 30, 2009. RE: US PS3 software sales as of Apr 09@PhilHarrision,
NPD is solid information on what has actually sold to consumers. Yes, it's extrapolated from hard data from a sample of stores but that is a very extensive sample. The industry itself uses NPD data and pays a lot of money for it. It's about as accurate as we're going to get in terms of actual sales.
Manufacturer numbers are invariably what they've shipped to retail, not what they've actually bought. Sony know how many copies they sold to GameStop. They don't know how many copies GameStop sold to customers. GameStop know that and feed that into NPD.
Anyway, the information I posted is not without caveats but it is a data point that paints a certain picture as to how certain software is doing. In the real world, companies stock values fluctuate all the time and almost always on "news". Even rumours about an earnings statement or just plain "uncertainty" are enough to move a stock.
TSE right now isn't exhibiting this behaviour. I've posted information about GTA:IV PS3, Dead Space & others recently and yet there is no signs that the market is incorporating the new information into it's predictions.
Which as you point out, turns the thing into a Keynesian beauty contest (see Wisdom of Crowds etc.) Such a criticism has been levelled at the exchange before. I don't agree it *has* to be that way but right now it *is* when the price doesn't reflect all of the information about a stock.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]bids
1PhilHarrision posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 2:13PM PST on June 30, 2009. RE: US PS3 software sales as of Apr 09@deftangel,I've seen in the past that on TSE numbers from the manufacturers tend to trump NPD numbers (since in reality NPD is just a very educated guess...the extrapolate to some of the biggest retailers out there no?).
You'll notice I didn't say anything about Evolution Studios as I don't think they have made a statement...I would think that sales in the EU would be at least double those in the US based on the genre.
If I was long on MSPR it would be do to thoughts that it will be a pack in this year at some point.
I agree about agregating...there are way too few people actively involved in TSE to properly set prices and the incentive to play to the proper price, rather than play for profit, doesn't exist. Seems others have had these thoughts over the time I've been here.[ Guru ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 424 ]bids
1deftangel posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 9:21AM PST on June 30, 2009. RE: US PS3 software sales as of Apr 09@PhilHarrision,
The US is the biggest market for these titles by quite some distance and the data refers to actual sell through, not shipped, from an independent source (NPD) That's as relevant a data point, if not more so, than shipped figures from the developers.
I'd be willing to bet, based on the GLS price for Motorstorm 2, a hypothetical future for sales in the US up to Apr 09 would have been trading for more than 25 DKP until that information had came to light.
But anyway, my point was a general one. All too often new information on stocks come to light and the price rarely, if ever, moves. That says to me the exchange isn't doing a good job of aggregating information.
[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]bids
1PhilHarrision posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 3:55AM PST on June 30, 2009. RE: US PS3 software sales as of Apr 09@deftangel, We already have statements from GG/PD/MM about world wide sales of their titles...US specific NPD data doesn't change those numbers.[ Guru ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 424 ]bids
1deftangel posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 1:55AM PST on June 30, 2009. RE: US PS3 software sales as of Apr 09@deftangel,
Sigh...this is the problem right now with this exchange. It's supposed to aggregate information. When NEW information comes to light, it's supposed to incorporate this into the price.
Here's an example of much weaker than anticipated US sales for some PS3 software and the prices have barely moved at all.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]bids
14deftangel posted on PLAYSTATION 3 (PS3) at 6:46AM PST on June 26, 2009. Article: US PS3 software sales as of Apr 09Motorstorm: Pacific Rift < 250k : Killzone 2, Resistance 2 & GT5: Prologue - 250k-500k : LittleBigPlanet 750k - 1000k : GTA:IV PS3 - 1.7m : MGS4 - 1.1m I've listed only active stocks, these are US only and *do not include bundles* . However, the weakness in PS3 software is pretty clear. More through the link.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]
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1
To expand on Mushashi's comment on bundle sales :
The main problem with shorting is that there is almost always a possibility in the future that a certain game get bundled (either officially by the console manufacturer, worldwide, or by certain big retailer like gamestop) which will skew the price up, and cost people DKPs.
Example :
Let's say Wii Music get bundled in the future (I know the probability is non-existant, but let's assume). The current GLS is 3.5 Million, which is probably right for non-bundle scenario. But with bundling, Wii Music might be able to reach 4 Million or even 5 Million. Whenever we short something, this bundling will always exist as risk, whether it is a big risk (first party game) or very small risk (third party game).
Fire (clearance) sale, which drive up the price is also a risk when shorting stock. Which is why I always wanted a big margin (25% minimum) when shorting things.