I wouldn't short this on this evidence at all. Current price seems entirely attainable. Not to mention, if you did short it, you'd never get the money out again at anything like a decent margin.
@yajimari21, IMO, when shorting something, it better to have a minimum (worst case) profit margin of 30%. This stock only have 15% profit margin (2.3 Mil current price - 2 Million worst case scenario / 2.3 Mil current price = 15%), therefore it is a risky short (and really dangerous long).
From those numbers it looks like this game should head for about 1.8-2 mill WW, in the absence of any major rise in its popularity overseas and unexpectedly long legs in Japan. Might be a marginally good stock to short at the current price, although there are quite a few other better short opportunities available now.
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I wouldn't short this on this evidence at all. Current price seems entirely attainable. Not to mention, if you did short it, you'd never get the money out again at anything like a decent margin.