May 2008 NPD Data
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US Hardware in May 2008
Title Actual units Expected units % From Expected Nintendo Wii 675,100 722,300 -6.53% Nintendo DS 452,600 504,500 -10.29% PLAYSTATION 3 208,700 218,900 -4.66% Xbox 360 186,600 227,100 -17.83% PlayStation Portable 182,300 210,500 -13.4% Total Hardware Units 1,705,300 1,883,300 -9.45%
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US Software in May 2008
Rank Title Actual units Expected units % From Expected 1 Grand Theft Auto IV (Xbox 360) 871,300 1,097,600 -20.62% 2 Mario Kart (Wii) 787,400 853,800 -7.78% 3 Wii Fit (Wii) 687,700 1,002,300 -31.39% 4 Grand Theft Auto IV (PS3) 442,900 577,300 +19.12% 5 Wii Play (Wii) 294,600 -- -- 6 Super Smash Bros Brawl (Wii) 171,100 247,500 -30.87% 7 Iron Man (PS2) 130,600 -- -- 8 Guitar Hero III: Legends of Rock (Wii) 116,800 -- -- 9 Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Darkness 107,000 -- -- 10 Pokemon Mystery Dungeon: Explorers of Time 102,000 -- -- Total Software Sales $536.9M $702.4M -23.56%
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@apujanata,
Total profit.
I got 2m DKP out of May NPD today.
I shorted these future stocks:
Stock's name - Av. Short Price - QTY
GTA IV (PS3) US 5/2008 - 76.52 DKP - 29,983 shares (966k DKP total profit)
GTA IV (360) US 5/2008 - 155.29 DKP - 26,299 shares (1.79m DKP total profit)
Wii Fit US 5/2008 - 178.12 DKP - 29,864 shares (3.26m DKP total profit)[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 29 ]bids
1@Heloise10,
I don't think it has much to do (or anything to do) with the impact of the general economy because retail spending was up in May and the hardware and software sales are both still significantly up from last year for May.
I think what we are seeing is that people were expecting a jump in hardware sales due to GTA IV sales (seem as in April), where this did not come as many of the people currently purchasing GTA IV are those that already own a 360 or PS3. In addition, I think that we are seeing Microsoft failing being able to market the 360 to a larger consumer base than the "hardcore" gamer.[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 36 ]bids
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1@starship,
Are those 6M additional profit just today, or toal profit (including profit you got from before freezing of May stock) ?[ Oracle ] [ Level 25 ] [ Rank: 3 ]bids
1@vGInfidel,
I have the same problem with you, "missed opportunity" on Wii Fit, since I covered my short at 10x price point. Even in my wildest dream, I didn't expect Wii Fit to sell only 687K. This means :
- VGC is way wrong (650K first day is not possible, unless Wii Fit is sold out on first day)
- Reggie broken his promise (to provide 1 Million Wii Fit for launch).
- Nintendo production capacity for Wii Fit is even lower than I expected.
- expect to see Wii Fit on ebay at much higher price for the next few months.
Since this month I didn't invest much of my money, I only get additional profit of 300K (no risk, no gain).
Congratulation, vGInfidel. You hit the jackpot today.
And Just_Ben lose a lot of money today on Wii Fit, since at least 30% of his networth was tied on Wii Fit on long.[ Oracle ] [ Level 25 ] [ Rank: 3 ]bids
1@vGInfidel, Yes - we need to integrate the impact of general economy and prices on HW sales. It HAS to have an impact and I believe we are starting to see it (expect on the cheapest console ...). So ... short for June as well :)[ Elite ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 10 ]bids
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1@Joe80,
I simply drew up a little table on paper listing the short price, quantity, market price, payout price and then used a calculator to work out the totals, then added them up and took them away from each other to find my total gains. It only took me 5 minutes or so, obviously it would take you longer as you have more stocks.[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 14 ]bids
1@vGInfidel,
Here is how I did:
Gta iv ps3 - lost big time
Mario kart - lost big
Ps3 -------- lost small
Ssbb ------- lost big
Wii -------- lost big
360 -------- lost big
Psp -------- gained big
Software --- big gain
Wii fit ---- big gain
Surprising NPD results to me on some, less surprising than last month though! Should be interesting to see how I do dkp wise, but I am already down ~800,000 for the day as it is.
vGinfidel how do you go about computing your results? I would do it if there was an easy fast way.[ Oracle ] [ Level 24 ] [ Rank: 5 ]bids
1Ive just totalled up my figures, My total amount of shorts comes to 11837k, market price before future closure of them was 10252k so already a 1500k profit. Now with NPD data i should only have to pay out 7795k meaning a 2500k profit on the day and about 4000k profit from the May futures overall. :)
Everything came in pretty much bang on my predictions. I predicted 1.3million overall for GTA with 850:450 360/PS3 split. I predicted 550million from the total software sales and i expected 800k from Wii Fit, which came in lower so im not going to complain :)
If i hadnt of began pulling out of my short on Wii Fit at the 100dkp price point to reduce the risk my profit could have been even higher. :)[ Oracle ] [ Level 22 ] [ Rank: 14 ]bids
1Shouldn't the "% From Expected" for GTA IV (PS3) be -19.12% and not +19.12%?
Guitar Hero III for the Wii has shown quite some legs - the real test will be when the Aerosmith edition is released on the Wii, so that we can see if the purchasers of Guitar Hero III can be converted to more sales for more Guitar Hero games. The release of Rock Band will be a test too to see consumers on the platform will expand to buying more music/rhythm games than just Guitar Hero.
Our predictions for May look to have been more accurate when compared to the actual NPD data that was released. This may be due to less futures having been done for May because of NPD restrictions - meaning more focus paid to each future than when more futures were able to be done.[ Oracle ] [ Level 20 ] [ Rank: 36 ]bids
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It wasn't quite 30% and I had a backup short (not quite that much) to take out the risk. -1 M for me today.