December 2008 NPD Data
Video game hardware sales in December 2008 were inline with the market expectations. Total hardware units (excluding PS2) sold were 8,376,000 compared to the market's expectation for 8,812,000 units sold.
Nintendo Wii was the only console to sell below the market expcations, selling 2,150,000 units compared to an expected 3,030,000 units.
The Xbox 360 sold double that of the PS3 with 1,440,000 units sold against the PS3's 726,000 units. Both platforms were in line with the markets expectations.
The Nintendo DS sold 3,040,800 units compared to the expected 2,670,000 units. The Sony PSP sold 1,020,000 units, compared to the expected 935,900 units.
Growth in video game sales were ahead of expectations for December. Total video game software sales grew 15% from $2.39 billion in December 2007 to $2.75 billion. Traders on the simExchange prediction market expected $2.5 billion.
Most hardware and software sales were within 10% of the simExchange prediction market's expectations. The market also tracked the sales of Prince of Persia (Xbox 360), which did not make the top 10.
The following tables compare market expectations on the simExchange and actual results as reported by the NPD Group.
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US Hardware in December 2008
Title Actual units Expected units % From Expected Nintendo DS 3,040,000 2,670,000 +13.86% Nintendo Wii 2,150,000 3,030,000 -29.04% Xbox 360 1,440,000 1,420,000 +1.41% PlayStation Portable 1,020,000 935,000 +9.09% PLAYSTATION 3 726,000 757,000 -4.10% PlayStation 2 410,000 -- -- Total Hardware Units 8,376,000 8,812,000 -4.95%
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US Software in December 2008
Rank Title Actual units Expected units % From Expected 1 Wii Play (Wii) 1,460,000 1,350,000 +8.11% 2 Call of Duty: World At War (Xbox 360) 1,330,000 799,000 +4.15% 3 Wii Fit (Wii) 999,000 -- -- 4 Mario Kart (Wii) 979,000 -- -- 5 Guitar Hero World Tour (Wii) 850,000 716,000 +18.73% 6 Gears of War 2 (Xbox 360) 745,000 799,000 -6.79% 7 Left 4 Dead (Xbox 360) 629,000 -- -- 8 Mario Kart DS (DS) 540,000 -- -- 9 Call of Duty: World At War (PS3) 533,000 -- -- 10 Animal Crossing: City Folk (Wii) 497,000 -- -- Total Software Sales $2,750.0M $2,492.5M +10.33% Total Tracked Software Units 4,385,000 4,142,700 +5.85% How exactly does this work?
Gamers and developers sign up on the simExchange for a free trading account. Using virtual currency called DKP, players buy virtual futures contracts that are under-predicting sales and short sell futures that are over-predicting sales. This concept is widely known as "the Wisdom of the Crowd" and this system is known as a "prediction market."
About the predictions
Predictions on the simExchange should become more accurate over time as (1) the diversity of the pool of traders increases and as (2) more accurate players are rewarded with more virtual currency for their accuracy (thereby enabling them to form more predictions) and less accurate players lose virtual currency (thereby discounting their ability to form more predictions).
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Discussion - Submit a comment
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1I am disappointed that Wii # is above 2 Million. :(
I am happy that Wii # is below 2.3 Million.
I still make a little bit profit, not as much as I expected. My networth should return back to normal, since it was despressed this week by my heavy short on Wii.[ Oracle ] [ Level 23 ] [ Rank: 9 ]bids
1@sagexsdx,
NPD release PS2 still, it's just not tracked on TSE so Brian doesn't list it.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]bids
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1@apujanata,
Haha swings and roundabouts. Even if I had stuck in, the increases in my other GLS would have forced me into a margin call anyway and as the most risky short (even if I was 90% sure it was a correct one) I'd have had to have bailed on it anyway.
I don't see why everyone is surprised though. Nintendo said they shipped 50% more than last year, which is pretty much what they have. 360 & PS3 are as expected.
Biggest news for me are the software sales. Wii Fit and Mario Kart Wii are #2  selling games of 2008 only behind Wii Play. At #10 is Mario Kart DS which is scary when you think Wii software is also showing signs of having similar legs.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]bids
1@deftangel,
I see. It is sad to hear that your plan to get into Top 25 through Wii Dec 08 failed. In hindsight, you should have sticked to your original plan, even though all sources pointed to 3 Million Wii Dec 08.
However, I have to thank you, because you are the reason that I can invest so much DKP into Wii Dec 08, at such a high price point. Without you, I wouldn't be able to profit as much as I did.[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
1@apujanata,
No. After the delisting a bunch of my GLS shorts went up a lot (GTA:IV PS3, Spore and WoW: Lich King) so I had no margin. I had to get out of Spore and start buying more GTA but I'm still 1m in the red :(
WoW: Lich King is so over-valued it isn't funny. People don't seem to realise that subscribers != purchases of the expansion pack. Especially when so many people in Asia simply go down to their local net cafe and log in there.
And it's 1m over the total subscribers for WoW anyway!
Still, at least I was correct in my prediction, even if I didn't have the cash to stick with it.[ Oracle ] [ Level 21 ] [ Rank: 291 ]bids
1@KultofCows,
I win 2.8 Million from my Wii short.
How are you doing, deftangel ? Did you manage to get some short at higher price point (3.2 Million), as per your plan ?[ Oracle ] [ Level 30 ] [ Rank: 14935 ]bids
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The PS2 sold 410,000 units. I've added it to the blog post.
NPD releases PS2 sales along with a lot of other information, which we don't post in its entirety. The spreadsheet they send out always includes certain revenue numbers like $662 million was spent on video game accessories and $1.88 billion was spent on video game hardware. This time it also included the top selling games of 2008, which deftangel posted in Top 10 NPD US for 2008.
NPD also released the following comments from Anita Frazier:
Overall:
"While industry growth has not continued at the blistering pace we saw during the second and third quarters, December's 9% increase over last December brings the year in 19% ahead of last year, and sets a new record for total industry sales."
"This month marks the first time that industry revenue has topped $5B in any single month. In 1997, annual revenues were $5.1B, and now a single month has realized that level of sales."
"We get asked a lot why there are so many layoffs and studio closings occuring in the industry when it has just realized another record-breaking year. This is not a case of the rising tide lifting all boats. The increasees are not being enjoyed equally by all manufacturers and publishers."
Hardware:
"The NDS captures the top-spot for hardware sales this month, marking the first time that any hardware system has sold in excess of 3 million units in any single month."
"The record for single-month console system sales still belongs to the PS2 which sold 2.7 million units in December 2002."
"38 months into this generation of hardware, the three new systems have sold a combined 38.2 million units, whereas at the same point last generation, in December 2003, the three systems had sold 36.9 million units. Factoring in the continued strong sales of the PS2 even after the new systems were released, 52 million systems have sold at retail since November '05."
Software:
"Software sales reached nearly $11B, which is more than total industry revenues were in 2005."
"While some have wondered if the popularity of Guitar Hero and Rock Band is waning, both properties realized their best month yet in dollar sales, and combined represent 16% of total software dollar sales this month."
"The variety of content on the top 10 list shows just how viable non-traditional content has become. Not only can these games succeed, they can end up on the top 10 list for the year."