@Jesse2050, I think the DDR analogy is flawed in that all of the similar games were perceived by nearly all involved as clones. Bemani was doing DDR before and after the craze. Also, the other dance games rarely added to the formula. They may have increased difficulty, or added (fairly basic) custom tracks, but there was so little to add that they didn't distinguish themselves.
There are two differences here, and they're why I think Rock Band will do well (for its price). First, the Guitar Hero developers are the Rock Band developers. People in the know are already assuming that Rock Band will be better made, since its developers have the experience- Harmonix has only once made a non-musical game, Neversoft has never done a music game before. Second, Rock Band is not a Guitar Hero clone. It does have the guitar element, but by including drums and vocals, it distinguishes itself from its competitor. Most of the people I see interested in Rock Band are into it more for the drums; that's something no other game (in America) offers.
Price is going to be the vital point here. We still don't know what the game + 1 instrument is going to cost. We do know that they will exist. We can assume the game + guitar will be comparable to GHIII ($80 or $90), and game + mic should be only $70 or $80, since the microphone is the same that usually raises other games by $10. Drums, we just don't know, though I would guess $90-$100.
All in all, I think GHIII has the casual and super-hardcore buyers covered- people who just know the name, and people who want the super-high difficult the game promises. Those sales will probably work out PS2 first, Wii or 360 in the middle, and PS3 last. Rock Band will sell to the Guitar Hero nuts, the people who want more songs to play and more challenge. But it'll also sell to the SingStar fans in Europe, and every wannabe drummer out there who can't get their hands on DrumMania. I'd predict the 360 version leading, even over the PS2 version.
Can they co-exist? Absolutely. It's best that they do; neither series should fall into the Madden rut. "Better" is too subjective for me to answer without getting to play either game. I'm getting both, personally. I've always liked rhythm games, and these are the first that really hit mainstream mentality. Plus, I wanna learn the drums.
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There are two differences here, and they're why I think Rock Band will do well (for its price). First, the Guitar Hero developers are the Rock Band developers. People in the know are already assuming that Rock Band will be better made, since its developers have the experience- Harmonix has only once made a non-musical game, Neversoft has never done a music game before. Second, Rock Band is not a Guitar Hero clone. It does have the guitar element, but by including drums and vocals, it distinguishes itself from its competitor. Most of the people I see interested in Rock Band are into it more for the drums; that's something no other game (in America) offers.
Price is going to be the vital point here. We still don't know what the game + 1 instrument is going to cost. We do know that they will exist. We can assume the game + guitar will be comparable to GHIII ($80 or $90), and game + mic should be only $70 or $80, since the microphone is the same that usually raises other games by $10. Drums, we just don't know, though I would guess $90-$100.
All in all, I think GHIII has the casual and super-hardcore buyers covered- people who just know the name, and people who want the super-high difficult the game promises. Those sales will probably work out PS2 first, Wii or 360 in the middle, and PS3 last. Rock Band will sell to the Guitar Hero nuts, the people who want more songs to play and more challenge. But it'll also sell to the SingStar fans in Europe, and every wannabe drummer out there who can't get their hands on DrumMania. I'd predict the 360 version leading, even over the PS2 version.
Can they co-exist? Absolutely. It's best that they do; neither series should fall into the Madden rut. "Better" is too subjective for me to answer without getting to play either game. I'm getting both, personally. I've always liked rhythm games, and these are the first that really hit mainstream mentality. Plus, I wanna learn the drums.