People do not drop $60 to 'test' if a game is right for them. They wait for reviews or impressions from their friends. Also, you slightly contradicted yourself when you said, "there isn't a huge fanbase for console RTS. However, this lack of a fanbase does not mean that everyone has tried an RTS". The fanbase is the potential number of people who would pick this up. How does a game with a lacking fanbase hope to draw in new people?
If this was a movie, which would cost less than $10 to rent, yes people would experiment more, but people generally stay with what they know will please them, if they have never played an RTS before, but play FPSs all the time, why would they trade that sure-fire satisfaction for something they are not sure will please them.
Games are an investment (much more so than movies or music, due to cost) and people would rather go with something solid than something that might not have any gain. Due to this I do not think people who own Halo 1-3 will flock to pick up this game, as they will be more than satisfied playing Halo 1-3 or buying some other FPS. Due to this, and the fact that the current prediction would make this one of the best selling Xbox360 games (in an unpopular genre on the Xbox360), it seems unlikely that this will be able to sell more than 1.6 million copies (160DKP). Also, if this game is not AAA, then it sales will be even lower.
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People do not drop $60 to 'test' if a game is right for them. They wait for reviews or impressions from their friends. Also, you slightly contradicted yourself when you said,
"there isn't a huge fanbase for console RTS. However, this lack of a fanbase does not mean that everyone has tried an RTS". The fanbase is the potential number of people who would pick this up. How does a game with a lacking fanbase hope to draw in new people?
If this was a movie, which would cost less than $10 to rent, yes people would experiment more, but people generally stay with what they know will please them, if they have never played an RTS before, but play FPSs all the time, why would they trade that sure-fire satisfaction for something they are not sure will please them.
Games are an investment (much more so than movies or music, due to cost) and people would rather go with something solid than something that might not have any gain. Due to this I do not think people who own Halo 1-3 will flock to pick up this game, as they will be more than satisfied playing Halo 1-3 or buying some other FPS. Due to this, and the fact that the current prediction would make this one of the best selling Xbox360 games (in an unpopular genre on the Xbox360), it seems unlikely that this will be able to sell more than 1.6 million copies (160DKP). Also, if this game is not AAA, then it sales will be even lower.