Well, the problem is that the forecasts aren't that high compared to the actuals. The game is close to 5M in Japan alone (and around 1M above the original), when I wrote that comment I just bought a shitload of stocks to get the game back to around 7.5M WW sales. So that is only 2.5M sales for both the US and Europe combined. It is already out of Europe for a while (probably because the first one sold considerably better there) and is still high in the charts for European countries like the UK, Germany and Spain (I don't see charts for other European countries). Even if this game would completely bomb in the US (and it isn't with 250k sold already, I personally expect it to be between 500-750k at the end of the year) and stop selling everywhere it would be around 6M. More likely scenario is that the game keeps selling in at least both Japan and Europe and this game has potential to get around or even above 10M WW sales eventually. So with at around 6M sold units already and selling well almost everywhere it makes no sense to value this stock at a price around 7M which shows no regard whatsoever for the huge upward potential for this stock. Now about your idea that not selling well in an area which expected to account for around 20% of total sales could result in the stock going 30% down. But if you for instance expected 5M for Japan, 3M for Europe and 2M for the US to give a total expectation of 10M. Why would lowering the 2M expected sales in the US because of lackluster sales ever result in a 3M lower expectation of total sales?
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Well, the problem is that the forecasts aren't that high compared to the actuals. The game is close to 5M in Japan alone (and around 1M above the original), when I wrote that comment I just bought a shitload of stocks to get the game back to around 7.5M WW sales. So that is only 2.5M sales for both the US and Europe combined. It is already out of Europe for a while (probably because the first one sold considerably better there) and is still high in the charts for European countries like the UK, Germany and Spain (I don't see charts for other European countries). Even if this game would completely bomb in the US (and it isn't with 250k sold already, I personally expect it to be between 500-750k at the end of the year) and stop selling everywhere it would be around 6M. More likely scenario is that the game keeps selling in at least both Japan and Europe and this game has potential to get around or even above 10M WW sales eventually.
So with at around 6M sold units already and selling well almost everywhere it makes no sense to value this stock at a price around 7M which shows no regard whatsoever for the huge upward potential for this stock.
Now about your idea that not selling well in an area which expected to account for around 20% of total sales could result in the stock going 30% down. But if you for instance expected 5M for Japan, 3M for Europe and 2M for the US to give a total expectation of 10M. Why would lowering the 2M expected sales in the US because of lackluster sales ever result in a 3M lower expectation of total sales?