The value of stocks listed on the simExchange are based on the assumption that all games will be released. So it shouldn't matter at all if you think this game is vaporware. Additionally, it matters little to me when this game was announced or how far the release date is pushed back. Here's the old blog post which discusses cancellations and delays.
However I believe that if Sadness is actually released it should sell more than 150,000 copies even if it turns out that Sadness is just a lame Resident Evil clone. For example, other mature fare like quickie ports Godfather and Scarface were projected have sold 180-190K each. There's even another really poor title named Manhunt 2 and it's projected to sell 500,000 copies and that's riding on pretty much just hype and controversy, maybe Sadness could do the same
In fact if Sadness is any good at all it could sell far greater than 150,000. It's actually funny that you mention black and white adventure games from unproven developers. Oddly enough there was another game which fits exactly that description, it's called Hotel Dusk and it was delisted recently with a final prediction of 447,500 copies sold.
In my opinion I think Sadness is a terrible short right now at 15 DKP. All the risk is to the upside and it's unlikely that this will fall further until some hard numbers come out to show that it should and like you said that may not be till 2009. In fact Sadness at this level is my new favorite speculative long and now has my full support.
I'm sorry Argon if you are going to suffer margin calls because of our trades but that's not my responsibility. I fail to see how I am the bully in this situation. If anybody was throwing their money around trying to push a stock down it was you. I merely took advantage of the numerous orders which you made available at 10 DKP. It's not my intention to bully anybody but I will take your money if I think you are giving it away.
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The value of stocks listed on the simExchange are based on the assumption that all games will be released. So it shouldn't matter at all if you think this game is vaporware. Additionally, it matters little to me when this game was announced or how far the release date is pushed back. Here's the old blog post which discusses cancellations and delays.
However I believe that if Sadness is actually released it should sell more than 150,000 copies even if it turns out that Sadness is just a lame Resident Evil clone. For example, other mature fare like quickie ports Godfather and Scarface were projected have sold 180-190K each. There's even another really poor title named Manhunt 2 and it's projected to sell 500,000 copies and that's riding on pretty much just hype and controversy, maybe Sadness could do the same
In fact if Sadness is any good at all it could sell far greater than 150,000. It's actually funny that you mention black and white adventure games from unproven developers. Oddly enough there was another game which fits exactly that description, it's called Hotel Dusk and it was delisted recently with a final prediction of 447,500 copies sold.
In my opinion I think Sadness is a terrible short right now at 15 DKP. All the risk is to the upside and it's unlikely that this will fall further until some hard numbers come out to show that it should and like you said that may not be till 2009. In fact Sadness at this level is my new favorite speculative long and now has my full support.
I'm sorry Argon if you are going to suffer margin calls because of our trades but that's not my responsibility. I fail to see how I am the bully in this situation. If anybody was throwing their money around trying to push a stock down it was you. I merely took advantage of the numerous orders which you made available at 10 DKP. It's not my intention to bully anybody but I will take your money if I think you are giving it away.