very exciting times indeed! I do however see/anticipated two limitations/problems with the SE predictions: the minor one would be a small tendency towards more buying than shorting due to the mechanical difficulties in shorting and the time trust, but the bigger one I can best express through an example (rather subjective, i must admit, but please bear with me): I'm quite sure that ps3 will sell at least as much as xbox360, probably 30-50% more I'd say, and I'm confident SE will in time come to show that, however, I think it will only show this as more media coverage goes it's way. In the past year media coverage has been on 360, so SE reflects that, when we had more ps3 news it reflected that... which is all good, part of the adjustment-to-market quality of SE, but I think this is where an individual good analyst can have the upperhand because they can have a more global and long term view. SE is great because it predicts the most probable outcome if more events were of the random-type...
Now my ps3/xbox360 example might not be something you agree with but I'm sure you've seen this too, the case in which one knowledgeable and inspired trader-analyst sees very clearly that a certain stock is overrated/underrated but it's pretty much useless to short/buy it until 3-6 months later when the hype gets lower. For this reason though I love SE and love seeing it more and more quoted, I don't think it will replace a handful of skilled analysts.
3
very exciting times indeed! I do however see/anticipated two limitations/problems with the SE predictions: the minor one would be a small tendency towards more buying than shorting due to the mechanical difficulties in shorting and the time trust, but the bigger one I can best express through an example (rather subjective, i must admit, but please bear with me): I'm quite sure that ps3 will sell at least as much as xbox360, probably 30-50% more I'd say, and I'm confident SE will in time come to show that, however, I think it will only show this as more media coverage goes it's way. In the past year media coverage has been on 360, so SE reflects that, when we had more ps3 news it reflected that... which is all good, part of the adjustment-to-market quality of SE, but I think this is where an individual good analyst can have the upperhand because they can have a more global and long term view. SE is great because it predicts the most probable outcome if more events were of the random-type...
Now my ps3/xbox360 example might not be something you agree with but I'm sure you've seen this too, the case in which one knowledgeable and inspired trader-analyst sees very clearly that a certain stock is overrated/underrated but it's pretty much useless to short/buy it until 3-6 months later when the hype gets lower. For this reason though I love SE and love seeing it more and more quoted, I don't think it will replace a handful of skilled analysts.